Chris Gutierrez faces off against late substitute Quang Le as one of our featured attractions on tonight's UFC Fight Night undercard.
Gutierrez has a new opponent with less than three days before the first bell, and the undefeated Le is hoping an upset will lead to a UFC contract.
UFC odds have Gutierrez penned as a -525 favorite, while Le is a +425 underdog. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Gutierrez vs. Le predictions from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Gutierrez vs Le prediction and pick
- My fight prediction
Gutierrez moneyline (-525 at BET99) - My best bet
Gutierrez by decision (-115 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Chris Gutierrez's chances to get back in the win column after a loss to Song Yadong just got that much better. He was originally slated to face Javid Basharat, and I fully intended to pick Basharat to win.
However, instead, he is fighting Quang Le, who was gearing up for his chance to fight in the Dana White Contender Series on very short notice. Le is undefeated in eight MMA fights, most recently performing in LFA.
Unlike Basharat, Le is a by-the-numbers Muay Thai striker who prefers to keep his distance in the standup and can rely on his BJJ when he's on the mat. Gutierrez won't have to worry about the threat of takedowns or getting mauled in clinches as he would have with his original opponent. While Le is undefeated, he's taking a massive step up in class and doesn't have an ace-in-the-hole skill like knockout power or grappling that can tilt the odds in his favor.
Gutierrez isn't a world-beater by any means, but he's a versatile striker who keeps busy and has been in the octagon with excellent opponents. The fact that Gutierrez isn't a bigger favorite most certainly has to do with the fact that he has to prepare for an entirely different style, but he's likely on weight and ready to go regardless.
Best best analysis
Even though he's a long shot, I can understand why Le would take his chances here instead of the more favorable circumstances in the Contender Series. He could win in the DWCS but still not impress enough to earn a spot on the roster. Upsetting a respectable contender like Gutierrez on short notice guarantees him a contract and a huge amount of momentum.
However, I don't see him outworking Gutierrez, who lands more than five significant strikes per minute. He won't be worried about getting taken down as he pressures forward and wins over the judges.
Chris Gutierrez vs Quang Le odds
Method of Victory | Gutierrez | Le |
---|---|---|
To win outright | -525 | +425 |
To win by KO/TKO | +185 | +1,200 |
To win by decision | -115 | +750 |
To win by submission | +1,400 | +2,000 |
Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds as of 8-8.
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Chris Gutierrez vs Quang Le tale of the tape
Gutierrez | Le | |
---|---|---|
33 | Age | 32 |
5-foot-8 | Height | 5-foot-6 |
136 lbs | Weight | 136 lbs |
67 inches | Reach | 70 inches |
20-6-2 (9 KO) | Record | 8-0 (2 KO) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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