UFC Fight Night Sergei Pavlovich vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik Predictions, Picks & Odds

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik serves as a featured undercard bout on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card headlined by Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov. Pavlovich is trying to end a two-fight skid and aim for another run at the top of the division, but this might be Rozenstruik’s time to break free of the pack and make a run of his own.

UFC odds have Pavlovich a -325 favorite with Rozenstruik a +240 underdog. Here are my best Pavlovich vs. Rozenstruik predictions and free betting picks for Saturday, February 1.

Pavlovich vs Rozenstruik prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction
  Rozenstruik moneyline (+240 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Over 1.5 rounds (+175 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Two fights ago, Sergei Pavlovich was widely seen as a contender and potential champion after reeling off five straight first-round finishes and skyrocketing up the rankings. 

He wasn’t just a flash-in-the-pan heavyweight, as he was displaying real talent and skills, beating good fighters on his way up to the point where people could believe he had the goods to potentially challenge for the title. That all changed when he ran into Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov, and now he’s on a two-fight losing streak, with the Volkov loss coming across as very troubling.

Volkov upset Pavlovich with range management and a ramrod jab, dominating him and making him look amateurish. After the decision was read, a distraught Pavlovich had a breakdown in the ring and refused to acknowledge Volkov. To me, that’s a sign of a mentally cracked fighter who bought into his own hype and can’t come to terms with why he lost.

While he’s favored against Rozenstruik, and a decent favorite at that, this could be a trap fight, as a mentally fragile Pavlovich is going up against a technical kickboxer who may not be as imposing as Volkov physically but is a harder striker with a similar methodical style.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik sits back and can counter effectively, and when he has to get dirty, he has stopping power and comes forward when he has to. Rozenstruik might not need to worry about that in this fight, as Pavlovich is all about the blitz. If Rozenstruik can stop him from getting into range like Volkov did and give him pause, then the fight will be half-won.

He’ll have to contend with Pavlovich’s power, but we’ve seen Rozenstruik diffuse big strikers in the past who saw that all they had was a puncher’s chance against him.

While Rozenstruik won’t be mistaken as a future world champion, he’s only lost to the true elite of the division during his UFC run, and that puts him on the same level as Pavlovich for this fight. I believe Rozenstruik is sturdy and smart enough to follow Volkov’s gameplan and get out of the first round.

Depending on how ready Pavlovich is mentally, he’ll either remain dangerous for the remainder of the fight or slowly start to pack it in once he starts getting frustrated. Rozenstruik has the tools and the intangibles to pull off the upset, and I’m compelled to pick him.

Best bet analysis
If Rozenstruik gets out of the first round — and I think he will — he’ll have Pavlovich out of sync. That said, Pavlovich’s faster hands and better power could quickly close things out. 

I see this fight starting slow, ensuring that no drama happens until after Round 1, making the fight going Over 1.5 rounds my best bet.

Sergei Pavlovich vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik odds

Method of Victory	Pavlovich	Rozenstruik
To win outright	-345	+240
To win by KO/TKO	-250	+375
To win by decision	+1000	+800
To win by submission	+3300	+2500
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 2-1.

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Sergei Pavlovich vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik tale of the tape

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