T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas hosts the highly anticipated UFC 313 PPV on Saturday evening. Headlining the main card is the sport’s biggest (active) star, Light Heavyweight Champion Alex Pereira.
I break down that fight and two others in my UFC 313 parlay picks and predictions for Saturday’s card.
Best UFC 313 parlay picks
- Carlos Leal moneyline
- Armen Petrosyan moneyline
- Alex Pereira moneyline
(+267 at DraftKings)
Pick #1: Carlos Leal moneyline
We are receiving a particularly good line on this parlay at +267 via DraftKings, which is six cents longer than the +261 payout that FanDuel offers. The first leg of this three-fight parlay features Carlos Leal, who takes on Alex Morono in a welterweight bout between unranked contenders.
Leal is the largest favorite on this card at -700, and for good reason. He found immense success in the PFL before signing with the UFC to take on Rinat Fakhretdinov on short notice at UFC 308.
Making your debut on short notice against a veteran like Fakhretdinov is a tough proposition for anybody. However, not only did Leal hold his own, but most people would concede that he actually won that fight, despite what the judges ruled.
Each of the 16 media scores awarded the fight to Leal, with 11 of those 16 media members scoring the fight as a shutout (30-27 Leal). Leal will have a big chip on his shoulder after that controversial loss, which will help his cause against Morono, who has now lost three of his past four fights.
Morono’s only win over that stretch came against Court McGee, who himself is just 4-8 over his past 12 fights. Leal has a lot more to prove as a newly signed 30-year-old, while Morono appears to be past his prime, and his recent performances suggest he is now fighting primarily for paychecks.
Pick #2: Armen Petrosyan moneyline
The next fight on the prelims features a middleweight bout between unranked contenders Brunno Ferreira and Armen Petrosyan. I believe the line is short on Petrosyan because of the recency bias of his loss to Shara Magomedov.
Magomedov caught him with the now-viral double-spinning back fist knockout, which occurred just seconds away from the conclusion of the second round. However, I don’t think we will see a similar outcome against Ferreira.
Ferreira is a violent fighter who gives it his all in the opening round, which is why each of his past six wins has come by a first-round finish. However, that means that he typically gasses as the fight wears on, and I don’t trust his fight IQ to make the adaptation.
This presents a challenge for Ferreira because, despite his recent knockout loss, Petrosyan is a durable fighter who can also mix in some grappling if needed. If this fight reaches the second round, Petrosyan’s chances of winning increase significantly, as reflected in the -275 odds for the fight to start Round 2.
There are far more paths to victory for Petrosyan in this fight, while Ferreira will most likely have to win with an early knockout. While that is a possible outcome, I wouldn’t bet on it.
Pick #3: Alex Pereira moneyline
As discussed in the introduction, Pereira defends his Light Heavyweight Championship in the main event against Ankalaev. The reigning champion is one of the most powerful and violent strikers in the entire UFC, and it seems that the only way that any of the contenders in the 205-pound division will beat him is on the ground.
However, Ankalaev has been extremely reluctant to show us his grappling, which makes him unique among other Dagestani fighters. Ankalaev has landed just three total takedowns over his past five fights and has never secured a submission victory as a professional mixed martial artist.
In fact, Pereira has more submission attempts in the UFC than Ankalaev (zero).
The majority of this fight will likely stay on the feet, and if that is the case, Pereira should be in the driver’s seat.. Ankalaev’s fight against Jan Blachowicz proved that he is a counterstriker and can be targeted with leg kicks to set up the high shots.
The problem for Ankalaev is that this weakness is Pereira’s greatest strength. Pereira thrives on using devastating leg kicks to set up crosses and hooks to the head, a formula that has made him one of the UFC's fastest-rising stars.
If Ankalaev actually utilizes a wrestling game plan that we have hardly ever seen from him, then he can surely win this fight. However, Ankalaev has yet to convincingly showcase a wrestling-heavy game plan, and if he stays on his feet against Pereira, the champion is likely to retain.
