Ian Machado Garry vs Carlos Prates Predictions, Picks & Odds

Ian Machado Garry faces off against Carlos Prates in the main event for UFC Fight Night betting this Saturday.

This should be a banger between a pair of surging young contenders in the welterweight division. This is expected to be a close fight, with UFC odds installing Machado Garry as a slim -130 favorite, and I'm backing him to get the job done.

Here are my best free Machado Garry vs. Prates predictions and free betting picks for April 26 from the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City.

Machado Garry vs Prates prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Machado Garry moneyline (-130 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Machado Garry moneyline (-130 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Carlos Prates is on an 11-fight winning streak with 10 of those victories coming by way of knockout. He's a perfect 4-0 in the UFC and has earned a Performance of the Night bonus in every bout.

That said, there are major questions about how he'll look against top competition. He's coming off the best win of his career, and that was against a washed-up 37-year-old Neil Magny, who was fresh off a knockout loss. 

He'll have a much harder time against Ian Machado Garry, who is just entering his prime at 27. Machado Garry is coming off the first loss of his career, but it was one of the rare defeats that actually raised a fighter's stock.

He faced No. 1 contender and division boogeyman Shavkat Rakhmonov on short notice and lost a competitive decision over five rounds. Machado Garry was able to avoid the danger of a finisher like Rakhmonov, which is why I like him against a knockout artist in Prates. 

Prates' worst performance in the octagon came against the mediocre Trevin Giles, who was able to jab and kick him at range while getting his back against the cage. Machado Garry does those same things except at a higher level.

He'll be able to neutralize Prates' offense by pushing him against the cage and getting him in clinch positions. From there, he'll either be able to drag him to the mat or wear him down in close.

In addition, Machado Garry has five-round experience while Prates has never fought more than three rounds and hasn't gone past the second round since 2019. Prates should have some big moments with his striking but Machado Garry will win the majority of the minutes. Back the more technical and well-rounded fighter here. 

Best bet analysis

Machado Garry simply has more paths to victory. He can outpoint Prates over five rounds, use his grappling advantage, or even land a knockout. Prates seems like knockout-or-bust type and I can't trust him against a durable fighter like Machado Garry. Being able to get Machado Garry at this price on the moneyline is good value. 

Ian Machado Garry vs Carlos Prates odds

Method of Victory	Machado Garry	Prates
To win outright	-150	+130
To win by KO/TKO	+335	+205
To win by decision	+245	+800
To win by submission	+500	+2000
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 4-26.

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Ian Machado Garry vs Carlos Prates tale of the tape

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