UFC 313 Jalin Turner vs Ignacio Bahamondes Predictions, Picks & Odds

Lightweight bombers Jalin Turner and Ignacio Bahamondes collide in one of our featured betting attractions on the UFC 313 undercard. Bahamondes looks to break into the Top 15 at lightweight whereas Turner comes in desperately looking to get back in the win column after a rough patch.

UFC odds have Bahamondes a minor -130 favorite and Turner is a +105 underdog. Here are my best free Turner vs. Bahamondes predictions from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday, March 8.

Turner vs Bahamondes prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction
  Bahamondes moneyline (-130 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Over 2.5 rounds (+110 at BET99)

Fight analysis
At UFC 301, Jalin Turner committed a costly mistake by walking away from a broken and battered Renato Moicano instead of throwing one more strike at his defenseless opponent that likely would have drawn a stoppage. That moment of tactical stupidity gave Moicano a chance to recover, submitting Turner in the next round and handing him his third loss in four fights. That lack of fight IQ and focus now has Turner potentially fighting for his UFC career against Ignacio Bahamondes.

Turner normally has a physical advantage because he is so tall and long, but not here as Bahamondes has the same physical dimensions and better cardio. Bahamondes uses his length and range better than Turner does and is a volume striker landing an astonishing 7.17 significant strikes per 15 minutes. He is defensively mindful, doesn't get hit that often, and makes his opponents work to get inside. He’s a mobile striker who is hard to pin down, doesn’t seem to run out of gas, and is showing signs of improvement since losing to Ludovit Klein 18 months ago.

Bahamondes is raising his competition level as Turner is a legitimate Top-15 fighter despite his setbacks. He uses his range and size more efficiently than Turner does, and while he doesn’t have the same one-punch power, he does a good job keeping his offense flowing and making it a punishment to try and charge in on him. One thing he hasn’t been able to do in the UFC is show that he has a ground game, where Turner has his best chance.

Though he has the reputation of a striker, three of Turner’s recent wins came by submission. If this does end up being a range war, things can quickly swing to Turner’s favor as he can grapple and get submissions. We can’t say the same for Bahamondes, though he has displayed solid takedown defense by shutting down 85% of those attempts.

Typically, when two fighters are so evenly matched, I tend to favor the fighter who can bring more tools to the shed, but I’m not doing that here. Turner’s inconsistencies and low fight IQ will give Bahamondes the fight because he won’t be able to adjust to fighting someone his size, and the Chilean’s mobility and work rate will slow him down. 

Best bet analysis
I can see this fight being awkward with a lot of hand fighting and sizing up, as each fighter takes his time to navigate the other’s size and power. These two can get hot at any moment, but a careful start ensures any explosive happenings will come later in the fight.

Therefore, I’m picking the fight to go Over 2.5 rounds as my best bet.

Jalin Turner vs Ignacio Bahamondes odds

Method of Victory	Turner	Bahamondes
To win outright	+110	-135
To win by KO/TKO	+285	+265
To win by decision	+540	+245
To win by submission	+675	+1050
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 3-8.

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Jalin Turner vs Ignacio Bahamondes tale of the tape

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