Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg Predictions, Picks & Odds

Former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno faces off against Steve Erceg in the main event for UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday, March 29.

UFC odds have the former champ installed as a -260 favorite, with Erceg coming back at +195. Here are my best free Moreno vs. Erceg predictions from the Arena CDMX in Mexico City.

Moreno vs Erceg prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Moreno moneyline (-245 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Moreno by decision (+120 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Steve Erceg was a trendy upset pick as a +165 underdog when he faced Alexandre Pantoja for the belt just 10 months ago. He lost a close decision to Pantoja but was knocked out in the first round by Kai Kara-France in August as a -180 favorite, which has dropped his stock. 

Erceg has beaten the guys he was supposed to but has come up short against the cream of the crop at flyweight. He still needs refinement and is far less experienced than Brandon Moreno, who has been in more than twice as many MMA bouts and has a slew of title fights on his resume. 

Despite all that high-level experience, Moreno is still just 31 years old and in his physical prime.

Still, I had questions about his mindset following back-to-back split-decision losses to Pantoja and Brandon Royval. After all, many former champs find it tough to get motivated for non-title fights after reaching the top of the mountain.

However, he answered those questions with an impressive decision victory against Amir Albazi last November, and he'll be amped to fight in front of a home crowd.

Erceg has good Jiu-Jitsu with dangerous submissions but Moreno is more technical with his grappling and has better wrestling. While Erceg has excellent boxing, Moreno might be his equal in that area and the former champ also has powerful kicks and a granite chin. 

Another factor that favors Moreno is that Mexico City Arena CDMX sits at an altitude of 7,350 feet — 2,000 feet higher than Denver. That elevation could cause some fighters to gas out, but Moreno has five-round experience in Mexico City and used to train at altitude in Denver.

Best bet analysis

Moreno certainly has a chance to win by knockout. After all, Erceg is coming off a knockout loss, while Moreno has racked up TKO wins against Deiveson Figueiredo, Royval, and (ironically) Kara-France.

That said, it's far more likely that he wins by decision. While Moreno has pop in his shots, he doesn't have death-touch power and the majority of his knockouts have come by accumulated damage.

Erceg is a tough fighter without much tread on his tires so his chin shouldn't be compromised long-term. He should also be more cautious with his striking defense after coming off the first knockout loss of his career. I also expect both fighters to pace themselves in the early rounds to avoid gassing out at elevation.

Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg odds

Method of Victory	Moreno	Erceg
To win outright	-240	+200
To win by KO/TKO	+350	+1350
To win by decision	+120	+285
To win by submission	+750	+1750
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 3-29.

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Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg tale of the tape

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