Josh Emmett vs Lerone Murphy Predictions, Picks & Odds

Lerone Murphy is inching closer to title contention at featherweight, and a win over the battle-tested Josh Emmett may put him in prime position to do just that. The problem is the heavy-handed Emmett is not gracefully settling into the twilight of his career and is fixing to derail Murphy’s momentum.

UFC odds favor Murphy at -340, and Emmett is a +250 underdog. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Murphy vs. Emmett predictions from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Emmett vs Murphy prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Murphy moneyline (-340 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Murphy to win by decision (-105 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Through 16 professional MMA fights, Lerone Murphy stands at 15-0-1 and is getting close to a major fight in the featherweight division as long as he continues to win.

He's at the point in his career where he's nearing a title shot, and we're only going to get a better idea of how he’ll do in these big fight scenarios, which is partially why this fight with Josh Emmett is intriguing. Emmett is 40 years old and 15 months removed from his knockout win over Bryce Mitchell, so while he’s closer to his sell-by date in the octagon, we know he can still put together a big night under the right circumstances. 

We’ve seen Murphy look electric, and he is a technically sound striker who keeps his work on the outside while remaining hard to hit. He has an excellent positive strike differential, where he lands 4.80 significant strikes per minute against 2.67 absorbed, and he is accurate, though the power doesn’t seem to be there. Murphy is nearing two takedowns per fight, but it isn’t a big part of his offense, and his takedown defense may end up being a liability one day, though Emmett won’t trouble him on the mat.

That’s because, despite starting his MMA career as a wrestler, Emmett has unlearned those skills in favor of being a headhunter. He's a very strong striker who charges forward and is always going for the knockout with a technique far from graceful, though that chaos and strength are often useful against more technically minded opponents who prefer to fight within their rhythm.

Emmett has been inside the division’s Top 10 for a while now, having faced top contenders and future champions, and remains relevant despite his advanced age for the weight class.

While Ige was able to shock Murphy early on, and Emmett is a heavy-handed charger, this should be a by-the-numbers fight for Murphy. Emmett’s best chance of winning this fight would have been swarming his way in and taking Murphy down, then using his power to do damage on the mat, but he’ll be swatting at air as Murphy’s three-inch height and reach advantage along with his evasive footwork will make the rusty Emmett look his age.

Expect Murphy to do what he does best and keep the fight on the outside, picking off Emmett as he predictably charges in to close the distance. The faster hands and superior defense will lead to Emmett getting marked up, leading to a convincing win for “The Miracle.”

Best bet analysis
Murphy is not a finisher, and would likely be the one getting put out by a wild shot from Emmett if anything were to happen. I don’t believe it will, though Emmett will not stop hunting for a knockout, leaving him open for counters as he desperately charges forward while the fight is slipping away. I'm fairly confident Murphy wins this fight, and I’m making Murphy winning by decision my best bet.

Josh Emmett vs Lerone Murphy odds

Method of Victory	Emmett	Murphy
To win outright	+245	-310
To win by KO/TKO	+500	+250
To win by decision	+640	-105
To win by submission	+2500	+1600
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 4-5.

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Josh Emmett vs Lerone Murphy tale of the tape

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