Pat Sabatini vs Joanderson Brito Predictions, Picks & Odds

Joanderson Brito and Pat Sabatini are known for getting out of work early, and that may be the case as these all-action featherweights collide in the co-main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night.

It’ll be Brito’s blunt force trauma strikes vs. Sabatini’s inescapable grappling in a fight whose outcome will likely not need the judges’ scorecards.

UFC odds favor Brito at -240, and Sabatini is a +185 underdog. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Brito vs. Sabatini predictions from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Sabatini vs Brito prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Brito moneyline (-230 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Brito to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+130 at BET99)

Fight analysis
This featherweight fight features two good — bordering on very good — fighters. While neither man is likely to contend at the top of the division, they should deliver an entertaining action fight. Both Joanderson Brito and Pat Sabatini are finishers in different disciplines, and this will likely come down to who establishes their game plan first.

Brito is the striker, but he can do more than just punch. He constantly throws big shots looking for the knockout, but he’s also a capable grappler, averaging over three takedowns per fight and boasting a 72% takedown defense rate.

There isn’t much finesse to his technique as he throws with bad intentions and hits hard enough that opponents tend to cover up or retreat when he’s in range. We saw that in Brito’s last fight, where he dropped a split decision to William Gomis after spending too much time loading up for a kill shot and being outworked.

That kind of passivity might not be an issue against Sabatini, a tremendous grappler with poor fight IQ and a suspect chin. When Sabatini closes the distance and gets his hands on you, he’s a nightmare who scores takedowns in bunches and hunts for submissions.

Any trip to the mat with Sabatini is usually trouble, as he applies creative locks and crushing top pressure. However, his striking is limited, and his chin has failed him before as he’s been knocked out three times. He’s coming off a first-round submission win over Jonathan Pearce, where he once again showcased his ferocious ground game.

From a pure skill perspective, Sabatini might have the overall edge, but he sets up his grappling pressure by marching forward and trying to clinch. His striking output is minimal at under two significant strikes landed per minute, and the lack of upper-body movement means he’s going to eat some heavy strikes from Brito.

Considering Sabatini’s one-dimensional approach and inability to take big shots, this could end badly for him. Brito isn’t the easiest fighter to take down, and he won’t need much of an opening to make Sabatini pay for closing the distance recklessly.

If Brito ends up on the mat, Sabatini could very well submit him, but I expect it to be Sabatini who hits the canvas first after charging into something nasty. I’m picking Brito’s heavy hands to overcome Sabatini’s relentless grappling.

Best bet analysis
Sabatini’s chin issues, combined with his linear approach and lack of head movement, are a dangerous mix against a heavy-handed brawler like Brito.

While there’s always a chance that Sabatini drags this into his world and snatches a submission, I don’t think he survives the kind of pressure Brito brings early on. My best bet is for Brito to win by knockout.

Pat Sabatini vs Joanderson Brito odds

Method of Victory	Sabatini	Brito
To win outright	+185	-240
To win by KO/TKO/DQ	+1600	+130
To win by decision or technical decision	+450	+335
To win by submission	+500	+700
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 4-5.

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Pat Sabatini vs Joanderson Brito tale of the tape

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