It’s never too early for a fight of the year contender to fall into our laps, and that’s what fans have to look forward to when Steve Torres and Drew Dober face off in the co-main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night.
Our premier bout on the undercard figures to be a brutal battle that’ll last as long as either man’s compromised chins can hold out for, and it should be a good one.
UFC odds favor Dober at -120, and Torres is a -105 underdog. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Torres vs. Dober predictions from Arena CDMX in Mexico City.
Torres vs Dober prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Dober moneyline (-105 at BET99)
- My best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-200 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Dober has been a fan favorite and a standout lightweight for some time, but the hard-punching veteran is nearing the end of his competitive viability and is in for a tougher fight against Torres than the odds may suggest. While Dober remains very tough and possesses excellent striking instincts, Torres is catching him at a time when his vaunted durability and chin are beginning to crack, with this likely being the fight that determines if Dober becomes a stepping stone.
That being said, it is entirely possible that Dober can win this fight. Torres got stopped by Ignacio Bahamondes in his last fight, and we’ve seen him charge into trouble and get wobbled in his previous victories as well. The one thing you don’t want when facing Dober is a weak chin and leaky defense, and Torres has both. Not to mention, his intense striking output leaves him vulnerable to Dober’s counter-punching.
This will start and end as a fistfight, and it’ll come down to Torres’ aggression versus Dober’s precision. What Torres lacks in finesse, he makes up for in strong situational awareness. He is also a solid finisher, with all four of his UFC wins coming in the first round.
We’ll have to see how he handles Dober’s power, or if he opts for a wrestling-heavy approach to neutralize it. Technically, Dober is the better striker and is still competing at a respectable level despite a clear physical decline. Unfortunately, Dober tends to make costly tactical errors and sometimes strays from what he does best, which has kept him just outside of elite contention.
Father Time will come for Dober, but this is a very winnable fight for him. Torres will give him the opportunities he needs by meeting him in the middle of the cage, and their wild exchanges should favor Dober’s power.
Best bet analysis
Torres comes forward with everything, but he hasn’t shown he can take much punishment in return. Considering Dober’s wear and tear and the pace we’re expecting from these two brawlers, it’ll take a miracle for this one to reach the scorecards, let alone get into the third round.
My best bet is that the fight goes Under 1.5 rounds.
Manuel Torres vs Drew Dober odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Torres | Dober |
| To win outright | -115 | -110 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +195 | +150 |
| To win by decision | +1250 | +750 |
| To win by submission | +425 | +1400 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 3-29.
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Manuel Torres vs Drew Dober tale of the tape
| Torres | Dober | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 36 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
| 73 inches | Reach | 70 inches |
| 15-3 | Record | 27-14 |
| 7 | Wins by KO | 15 |
| 7 | Wins by submission | 5 |
Not intended for use in MA.
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