Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer Predictions, Picks & Odds

Time may be running out for Kelvin Gastelum as a career defined by missed opportunities and inconsistencies brings him to a must-win fight against Joe Pyfer in the featured undercard bout of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night. 

Unfortunately for Kelvin, my Gastelum vs. Pyfer predictions expect the UFC odds favorite to come out with a decision victory on March 29.

Gastelum vs Pyfer prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Pyfer moneyline (-300 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Pyfer to win by decision (+165 at BET99)

Fight analysis
It’s hard to keep rooting for Gastelum when he’s not even hiding the fact he isn’t taking himself seriously anymore.

Gastelum notoriously documented himself gorging on fast food during training camp for a welterweight fight where he missed weight, forcing the UFC to change it to a middleweight bout, one that Gastelum managed to win against the extremely limited Daniel Rodriguez.

While it’s anyone’s guess how long the UFC can continue giving Gastelum opportunities despite his disinterest, we’ll get a better idea based on how he performs in a tough matchup against Pyfer.

Pyfer is rough around the edges, possessing solid striking power, BJJ skills, and the ability to secure takedowns when needed. He constantly pressures his opponents and throws heavy strikes, though questions linger about his conditioning.

That said, he’s a fighter who shows improvement with every outing. He bounced back from the submission loss to Jack Hermansson by blasting out Marc-André Barriault, reestablishing himself as a middleweight to watch.

In addition to having less wear and tear, Pyfer is the more focused fighter and stands four inches taller than Gastelum, making it difficult for the grappling-based veteran to do what he does best.

Gastelum has his work cut out for him, but the real question is whether he’ll come to fight or rely on his chin and experience to carry him. It’s frustrating to watch Gastelum devolve to the point where, at 33 years old, he’s essentially a failed prospect.

We’re far from the fighter who gave a prime Israel Adesanya all he could handle. While Gastelum still possesses fundamental skills and is incredibly tough, seemingly impossible to knock out, he now enters this fight as a significant underdog. He could very well be fighting for his UFC career.

If this fight stays standing, Gastelum will struggle with Pyfer’s height and reach and must rely on his wrestling to avoid getting tagged during clinch exchanges. Pyfer should remain composed and not empty the tank chasing a finish, especially since overcommitting could open the door for Gastelum to drag him down and create scrambles.

Expect Pyfer to keep Gastelum on the back foot and avoid situations where he gives up his length and allows Gastelum to shoot in.

Best bet analysis
Pyfer will have his work cut out for him if he tries to crack Gastelum’s granite chin, and he should be wary about playing it too loose when they tie up.

He should be able to dominate the stand-up and fend off Gastelum’s takedown attempts in the early goings if he even bothers to shoot in. Giving Gastelum credit for his durability, the best bet to make is that Pyfer wins by decision.

Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer odds

Method of Victory	Gastelum	Pyfer
To win outright	+235	-310
To win by KO/TKO	+800	+285
To win by decision	+440	+165
To win by submission	+2700	+350
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 3-29.

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Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer tale of the tape

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