UFC 313 Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev Predictions, Picks & Odds

Justin Gaethje faces off against Rafael Fiziev in the co-main event for UFC 313 betting this Saturday. 

Dan Hooker was originally scheduled to fight Gaethje at this event but after he withdrew due to injury, Fiziev stepped in on short notice. UFC odds have Fiziev as a -170 favorite with the former title challenger Gaethje coming back at +130.

Here are my best free Gaethje vs Fiziev predictions for March 8 from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Gaethje vs Fiziev prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction
  Fiziev ML (-160 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Fiziev by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision (-145 at BET99)

Fight analysis
These guys put together a Fight of the Night performance when they clashed at UFC 286 in 2023. Gaethje outstruck Fiziev 103-97 and poured it on in the final round to win a close majority decision.

It was an impressive victory for Gaethje who had previously challenged for the lightweight belt but was a +200 underdog against the fast-rising Fiziev. Gaethje proved that he was still a Top-5 lightweight by turning aside the younger fighter but a lot has changed since then and there are questions about both fighters. 

It's clear that oddsmakers are questioning the chin of Gaethje who is 36 years old and coming off a knockout loss to Max Holloway last April. It was an ugly scene with UFC cameras panning away as Gaethje spasmed on the ground with blood pouring out of his mouth.

That's the sort of knockout that can change a fighter's career, especially an older guy like Gaethje who has been in plenty of wars. Gaethje has a history of getting hurt in fights and Fiziev is a heavy hitter with three of his last four wins coming by KO/TKO. 

Let's not forget that Fiziev out-pointed Gaethje in the first two rounds of their previous bout before fading in the third. Gaethje, who never tries to wrestle, shot for three takedowns in that fight. He landed only one of those and Fiziev immediately got back to his feet but it was a sign that Gaethje wasn't as comfortable trading as usual. 

Fiziev is coming off a torn ACL injury, but he's taken 18 months off and has been cleared to fight for a while. I'm more concerned about the lack of a full fight camp since he took this fight on just 10 days' notice. Especially since he tired in the third round of that previous scrap.

That said, this fight being scheduled for three rounds will help. If Gaethje's chin isn't completely gone and Fiziev can't get the early knockout, Fiziev should be able to win the first two rounds and coast to a victory in the final frame. 

Best bet analysis
It's tempting to bet Gaethje at plus money given the result of their first fight and the questions surrounding Fiziev. However, fighters in the lower weight classes tend to have a steep drop-off after the age of 35 and Gaethje has a lot of wear on his tires.

I'm more concerned about his chin given that previous defeat than Fiziev's lack of a full camp. Especially when you also factor in that the first fight was extremely close with Fiziev also affected by an unintentional eye poke. 

Back Fiziev to get revenge in the rematch by either chinning Gaethje or outpointing him in a decision win.

Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev odds

Method of Victory	Gaethje	Fiziev
To win outright	+125	-155
To win by KO/TKO	+370	+195
To win by decision	+295	+225
To win by submission	+2900	+2100
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 3-8.

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Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev tale of the tape

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