UFC 313 King Green vs Mauricio Ruffy Predictions, Picks & Odds

Lightweight striking specialists King Green and Maurico Ruffy meet at the crossroads ahead of their bout, which is one of our featured betting attractions on the UFC 313 undercard.

While Green is hoping to maintain his status as a perennial contender, Ruffy might have just enough to extend the aging veteran’s losing streak.

UFC odds have Ruffy as a -500 favorite and King is a +350 underdog. Here are my best free UFC 313: Green vs. Ruffy predictions from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Green vs Ruffy prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction
  Ruffy moneyline (-500 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
   Ruffy by KO/TKO/DQ (-105 at BET99)

Fight analysis
If anyone has become anything at lightweight, they’ve crossed paths with King Green at one point or another. For a long time, he's been the division’s truthmaker — a high-level gatekeeper who consistently tests rising contenders. While he has never quite broken into the elite, he's remained relevant for nearly 50 professional fights. However, at 38 and with two stoppage losses in his last three fights — including a submission defeat to Paddy Pimblett at UFC 304 — Green’s durability is becoming a major concern.

He now faces a dangerous opponent in Mauricio Ruffy, a powerful striker who may not have Green's finesse or experience, but compensates with raw aggression and stopping power.

While Ruffy enters this fight as a heavy favorite, much of that is due to Green’s age and recent struggles rather than Ruffy’s proven skill set. That said, Ruffy will still need to be ready for the fast pace and unorthodox movement Green brings to the table, something he hasn’t faced before in his MMA career.

Ruffy boasts 11 wins, all but one coming by knockout, living up to his moniker of “One Shot.” Since joining the UFC, he has averaged about 11 minutes of fight time and is coming off a decision victory over James Llontop. Before that, he finished his first three UFC opponents.

He's a strong Muay Thai striker, relying on stiff, straight punches, solid footwork, and measured aggression. He doesn’t take unnecessary risks that leave him exposed, making him a disciplined but dangerous opponent.

Green deploys a herky-jerky boxing style, inching in and out of range with his hands down while throwing from unorthodox angles. His offense is based on volume and precision rather than knockout power. However, his style has always depended on reflexes, and those reflexes are fading with age.

As Green’s ability to slip and evade shots declines, his lack of traditional defensive fundamentals leaves him increasingly vulnerable. That declining upper-body movement could spell disaster against an explosive striker like Ruffy.

Momentum often plays a key role in fights like this, and that intangible advantage belongs to Ruffy. He will look to test Green’s fading speed and suspect chin with his crisp, damaging strikes. Green’s best chance at victory is to make the first two rounds competitive and hope that Ruffy fades in the third. However, given Ruffy’s measured approach and ability to fight at a steady pace, that scenario seems unlikely. Youth will be served here, and Ruffy will come away with the victory.

Best bet analysis
When comparing these two, I get the sense that this fight plays out similar to Green’s stoppage loss to Jalin Turner where the sharper, younger fighter got their shots off first and Green succumbed to the onslaught. Ruffy appears to be an even more dangerous version of Turner, while Green has shown further decline since that fight. Given the stylistic clash and Green’s vulnerabilities, the best bet is for Ruffy to score a knockout.

King Green vs Mauricio Ruffy odds

Method of Victory	Green	Ruffy
To win outright	+335	-475
To win by KO/TKO	+1050	-115
To win by decision	+730	+185
To win by submission	+2250	+1000
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 3-8.

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King Green vs Mauricio Ruffy tale of the tape

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