UFC 313 features the return of light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira as he faces his toughest test yet against Magomed Ankalaev, and the co-main event is a rematch between Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev that is sure to deliver the action.
The prelims feature Curtis Blaydes in a rare appearance for the premier heavyweight, and a fantastic middleweight brawl that could steal the show in Bruno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan.
Here are my best free betting picks and UFC 313 prelim predictions, plus UFC odds analysis, from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
UFC 313 prelim picks and predictions
Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev
• Prediction: Blaydes moneyline (-345)
• Best Bet: Blaydes by KO/TKO/DQ (+105)
Bruno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan
• Prediction: Ferreira moneyline (+115)
• Best Bet: Fight to not go the distance (-200)
Alex Morono vs. Carlos Leal
• Prediction: Leal moneyline (-800)
• Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-105)
Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.
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UFC 313 prelim odds and picks
Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev fight odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Blaydes | Kuniev |
| To win outright | -340 | +255 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +110 | +700 |
| To win by decision | +200 | +625 |
| To win by submission | +1350 | +1850 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 3-8.
Curtis Blaydes has long been a fixture among the heavyweight elite thanks to his phenomenal wrestling and steadily improving striking. However, his weak chin has repeatedly derailed his title aspirations, and he's showing signs of decline.
That’s because he’s moved away from his wrestling and relied more on his striking, which has led to knockout losses in two of his last three fights against Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich, respectively. Even in his last fight against Jailton Almeida, he was being manhandled before capitalizing on an opening to secure a stoppage with ground-and-pound.
His best days may be behind him, but this is a huge ask for Rizvan Kuniev.
Kuniev is best known for his PFL win over Renan Ferreira, which was later overturned due to a failed drug test for multiple banned substances. Since then, he has looked far less explosive, less mobile, and even less physically imposing.
His striking is crude, characterized by wide, looping punches, and that lack of sharpness is an issue against a seasoned heavyweight like Blaydes. The UFC’s decision to match a Contender Series call-up against a Top 5 heavyweight is questionable. Blaydes is the clear pick, and I’m confident he will win by knockout.
Prediction: Blaydes moneyline (-345 at BET99)
Best Bet: Blaydes by KO/TKO/DQ (+105 at BET99)
Bruno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Ferreira | Petrosyan |
| To win outright | +110 | -135 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +235 | +240 |
| To win by decision | +750 | +215 |
| To win by submission | +725 | +2400 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 3-8.
Both Bruno Ferreira and Armen Petrosyan are coming off losses to high-profile contenders in fights where they had their moments before getting finished.
Ferreira is a highly aggressive power puncher with legitimate stopping ability, making him an early-round threat. Petrosyan, the more technical striker, is favored due to his refined striking skills, but he has defensive lapses that have cost him in previous fights.
Against Rodolfo Vieira, Petrosyan got taken down and submitted, and against Shara Magomedov, he was knocked out with a spinning back fist in a fight he was controlling. If he can survive the first round, as Abus Magomedov did against Ferreira before getting him to tap out to an armbar, his chances of winning increase significantly, given Ferreira's tendency to gas out.
However, I don’t trust Petrosyan to play it safe. The wild exchanges give Ferreira a chance to land a huge shot, and if he hurts Petrosyan, he’ll likely finish him. Ferreira is my pick, but my best bet is that this fight does not go the distance.
Prediction: Ferreira moneyline (+115 at BET99)
Best Bet: Fight to not go the distance (-200 at BET99)
Alex Morono vs. Carlos Leal fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Morono | Leal |
| To win outright | +475 | -750 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +1600 | -120 |
| To win by decision | +850 | +175 |
| To win by submission | +2250 | +1200 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 3-8.
Carlos Leal should have been awarded the victory against Rinat Fakhretdinov last October in a fight he took on extremely short notice. With a full camp this time, he should look even sharper, and I don’t anticipate him struggling much against the aging Alex Morono.
While Morono remains a well-rounded veteran who does everything at a solid level, he lacks an elite skill set that would allow him to rise beyond the mid-tier of the welterweight division. At this point in his career, he can still handle fighters at his level, but he struggles against opponents with superior skill or athleticism.
Leal fights at a pace that Morono may not be able to match at this stage of his career. Though I expect Morono to hang tough, I believe Leal will ultimately get the job done. My pick is Leal to win, but my best bet is Over 2.5 rounds, as Morono’s durability should allow him to make it to the scorecards.
Prediction: Leal moneyline (-800 at BET99)
Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-105 at BET99)
Not intended for use in MA.
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