UFC 313 Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev Predictions, Picks & Odds

Alex Pereira makes his fourth defense of the light heavyweight title against Magomed Ankalaev in the headline event at UFC 313 this Saturday.

UFC odds opened with the challenger as a -155 favorite but money has poured in on the champ with Pereira now the slim favorite at -125. See why I agree with the line movement with my best free UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev predictions for March 8. 

Pereira vs Ankalaev prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction
  Pereira ML (-115 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Pereira by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision (+100 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Magomed Ankalaev has earned another title shot after putting together a 12-fight unbeaten streak. Ankalaev is well-rounded with a combat sambo base, but the narrative he's a dominant wrestler like other Dagestani fighters is off the mark. 

The 32-year-old isn't a relentless chain wrestler who spams takedowns or a skilled grappler with submission ability. He averages a modest 0.92 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a takedown accuracy of just 31%. The last time he tried to rely on his wrestling was in his previous title shot when he went 2-10 on takedown attempts against Jan Blachowicz and had to settle for a draw. 

Defensive grappling is Pereira's weakness but he's been working on that part of his game since transitioning to MMA. Pereira's been training extensively under former champion and BJJ specialist Glover Teixeira and his freakish strength makes him tough to hold on the mat. 

Ankalaev typically uses his kickboxing in order to set up his takedowns and he'll be at a significant disadvantage when standing up with Pereira. Pereira is a former two-division world champion kickboxer at Glory and he's now achieved the same feat in the UFC. Since moving up to light heavyweight, he's gone 5-0 with his last four wins coming by way of knockout. 

We've seen Ankalaev get cracked before and while his chin has always held up, he's never been touched by someone who hits as hard as Poatan. Ankalaev also has a tendency to eat leg kicks and Pereira does a great job of attacking the lead leg. 

While Ankalaev might be able to win minutes with his wrestling, Pereira should be able to win the fight with his superior striking. Look for Poatan to chew up Ankalaev's lead leg and reduce his mobility before unloading on him in the later rounds.

Best bet analysis
It was surprising to see Ankalaev open as a favorite since he's often underperformed against top opponents and Pereira will be the toughest test of his career. Ankalaev has gone the distance in five of his last seven fights despite being a significant fave in each contest.

His only stoppage wins during that span came against a glass-chin Johnny Walker and an over-the-hill Anthony Smith. If he can't get the finish here, he'll have a tough time beating Pereira who carries his power late into fights and can win by knockout or points. 

Pereira isn't just one of the hardest hitters in MMA history, he's also a highly technical striker with precision and a diverse arsenal of weapons. Being able to get him at even money is tough to turn down. Especially with the challenger taking the fight during Ramadan when he's training and weight-cutting while fasting from sunrise to sunset.

Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev odds

Method of Victory	Pereira	Ankalaev
To win outright	-115	+100
To win by KO/TKO	+150	+325
To win by decision	+575	+325
To win by submission	+1400	+900
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 3-8.

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Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev tale of the tape

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