UFC Fight Night: Derrick Lewis vs Jhonata Diniz Odds, Picks & Predictions

Derrick Lewis vs. Jhonata Diniz is a heavyweight bout and a featured undercard attraction for this weekend’s UFC Fight Night.

Knockout King Lewis is betting on his heavy hands to get him back in the conversation for another big fight, though he’ll find stern resistance from the Brazilian kickboxing phenom Diniz.

UFC odds have Diniz as a -180 favorite, with Lewis a +140 underdog. Here are my free betting picks for UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Diniz from Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.

Derrick Lewis vs Jhonata Diniz prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Diniz moneyline (-180 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Under 1.5 rounds (-135 at BET99)

Fight analysis

There’s no mistaking that Derrick Lewis is past his best. The only reason he’s still within striking distance of the heavyweight division’s Top 10 is because the division is top-heavy in terms of talent, and he keeps getting chances because he’s an entertaining fighter. 

He’s becoming more reliant on his power now that he’s slowing down, but he remains a high-level gatekeeper, with most of his losses coming against the true elite of the division.

Jhonata Diniz is a former Glory standout who transitioned to MMA and is trying to break out in a big way in his third UFC fight. He made his way to the UFC via the Contender Series and has gone 2-0 in the UFC, beating Austen Lane and Karl Williams.

This fight marks a massive step up in class to face Lewis. A counter-happy kickboxer, Diniz relies solely on his striking as he has no wrestling skills or ability to defend himself on the ground. However, he doesn’t need to worry about that in this bout, as Lewis doesn’t operate that way.

Diniz is a dynamic kickboxer who does his best work on the outside, punishing with leg kicks and landing his best shots as counters. He's stopped seven of his eight opponents and can fight at a fast pace if his opponent allows. He’ll have advantages in movement and footwork against Lewis, and he’ll be able to get to Lewis first with his faster strikes.

Lewis is at the point where he doesn’t even throw a 1-2 combination, and Diniz’s speed will present problems for him. If this fight stays at a distance, Diniz is the smarter fighter who can stay composed as long as the fight remains standing.

We haven’t seen him get hit by anyone with Lewis’ power, but Lewis himself tends to get rocked and dropped, and Diniz isn’t some feather-fisted kickboxer trying to win by perpetual retreat.

This fight will ultimately come down to who lands their big shots first. I can see Diniz targeting Lewis’ legs as he comes forward, popping him with some shots, and having Lewis give chase.

While Lewis can finish the fight with just one shot, Diniz isn’t going to find his ceiling against a crude striker like Lewis. He fights carefully, sets traps for Lewis, and beats him to continue his climb up the ladder.

Best best analysis

As much as I want to pick Diniz to stop Lewis, it’s always risky since he’s still adjusting to this level of competition. He may be the better striker from a technical standpoint and has shown finishing skills, but considering the likely outcomes, this feels more like a toss-up.

I’ll side with my cautious mind and pick that this fight stays Under 1.5 rounds.

Derrick Lewis vs Jhonata Diniz odds

Method of Victory	Lewis	Diniz
To win outright	+140	-175
To win by KO/TKO	+210	-120
To win by decision	+730	+700
To win by submission	+2,700	+2,250
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 10-31.

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Derrick Lewis vs Jhonata Diniz tale of the tape

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