Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Muslim Salikhov Odds, Picks, & Predictions

The welterweight clash between Santiago Ponzinibbio and Muslim Salikhov serves as the co-main event on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card and one of our featured events for UFC betting.

With both of these welterweights in the twilight of their careers, this fight will serve as a critical crossroads clash for both men, though Ponzinibbio might have more left in the tank.

UFC odds have Ponzinibbio a -210 favorite, with Salikhov a +160 underdog. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Ponzinibbio vs. Salikhov predictions from Ball Arena in Denver.

Ponzinibbio vs Salikhov prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Ponzinibbio moneyline (-210 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Over 2.5 rounds (-110 at BET99)

Fight analysis

No one can slight the level of skill that Ponzinibbio and Salikhov have displayed through the course of their careers, but this fight has these two battle-tested veterans essentially fighting for their livelihoods. Both fighters are 2-3 in their last five fights, including each being finished in their most recent losses. Even though both can still be very dangerous, it’s clear the sun is setting on them.

Right off the bat, this figures to be a striking battle. Both are technically solid strikers with Ponzinibbio having the better overall striking while Salikhov lands the heavier shots, but recent form suggests that Ponzinibbio will likely dictate the pace of the fight and may only need to worry about Salikhov’s power only for a round.

Salikhov has been fighting like an old man recently, and the 40-year-old is only fighting in a more conservative style that isn’t doing him any favors. He is a defensively-sound striker and throws his strikes with a lot of bad intent each time he does, but the increased selectiveness along with his declining speed and mobility isn’t going to help him if he can’t get Ponzinibbio out early. While Ponzinibbio is known for having a bad chin, the fact that Salikhov has only recently been getting knocked out also does little to help his chances.

I don’t see Ponzinibbio having the same troubles he did against Kevin Holland against an opponent who he’s younger and faster than, as well as having a slight reach advantage. There’s a chance that Salikhov will come at him hard in the opening salvo, but Ponzinibbio will avoid calamity and use his hand speed to work over the aging veteran. Ponzinibbio is the pick.

Best best analysis

Salikhov hits hard enough for Ponzinibbio to be wary early on, especially after he’s coming off a first-round knockout loss. We haven’t seen Salikhov carry over the same intensity in the subsequent rounds, often slowing down his already methodical pace to a crawl, and he’s subject to getting outworked now that he’s having trouble pulling the trigger.

Ponzinibbio’s chin is a liability. He’s been knocked out four times and any time he catches a clean shot that splits his guard, it could be all she wrote for the Argentine. However, I expect this fight to have a strong start that tapers off as Ponzinibbio begins to take control, though the threat of a Hail Mary knockout from Salikhov can’t be denied. My best bet for the fight is that it goes Over 2.5 rounds.

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Muslim Salikhov odds

Method of Victory	Ponzinibbio	Salikhov
To win outright	-200	+160
To win by KO/TKO	+180	+380
To win by decision	+210	+450
To win by submission	+1,100	+2,400
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 7-11-2024.

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Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Muslim Salikhov tale of the tape

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