Jared Cannonier vs. Kelvin Gastelum is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday, August 21 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
This should be an intriguing bout between a pair of Top-10 middleweights who are both looking to bounce back from losses to No. 1 contender Robert Whittaker. UFC betting lines have seen a fair bit of movement for this fight, with Cannonier opening as a -227 favorite but now sitting at -161, while Gastelum comes back at +130.
Here are our best free Cannonier vs. Gastelum picks and predictions for UFC Fight Night action on August 21.
Cannonier vs Gastelum fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Cannonier vs Gastelum method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Jared Cannonier | Kevin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO | +195 | +420 |
| Points | +200 | +410 |
| Submission | +3,400 | +1,400 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of August 16, 2021.
Cannonier vs Gastelum betting preview
Jared Cannonier is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Whittaker last October when he suffered a broken arm early in the fight and was picked apart by the more technical Whittaker. That snapped a three-fight winning streak for Cannonier, who had knocked out each of his previous three opponents since dropping down to middleweight in 2018.
Cannonier began his UFC career as a 241-pound heavyweight in 2016 but soon dropped down to light heavyweight where he went 2-3. But he has elevated his game since moving to middleweight where his strength, explosiveness, and power have made him the No. 3 ranked contender.
Paulo Costa was originally scheduled to face off against Cannonier in this main event before withdrawing and being replaced by the No. 9 ranked middleweight Gastelum in early June. Gastelum is also fresh off a decision loss to Whittaker and is just 1-4 in his last five fights with that lone victory coming by way of unanimous decision against Ian Heinisch in February.
The 29-year-old is a well-rounded fighter that combines excellent boxing technique with strong wrestling ability.
Cannonier vs Gastelum tale of the tape
| Jared Cannonier | Kevin Gastelum | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 29 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 5-foot-9 |
| 185 lbs | Weight | 185 lbs |
| 77.5 inches | Reach | 71.5 inches |
| 13-5 (9 KO) | Record | 16-7-1 (6 KO) |
Cannonier vs Gastelum UFC predictions and betting picks
PREDICTION: Moneyline Gastelum (+130) - Gastelum might have dropped four of his last five fights but his only "bad" loss in that span was when he was caught in a heel hook submission by Jack Hermansson. His loss against Adesanya for the interim belt in 2018 was a terrific tilt that earned Fight of the Night honors, Darren Till beat him by split decision and he showed aggressiveness against Whittaker, who also dismantled Cannonier.
Cannonier is now 37 years old and his defeat to Whittaker has been his only fight in the last 22 months. Gastelum has been more active, stepping into the octagon for the third time in the last six months, and he has looked hungry by accepting replacement fights against dangerous strikers in Whittaker and Cannonier.
Cannonier has a massive six-inch reach advantage with knockout power, but Gastelum's southpaw stance will make him tough to tag with leg kicks, and he has the toughness to eat shots while looking for his own opportunities inside. In addition, if Gastelum uses his wrestling, as he did against Heinisch, he could stifle The Killa Gorilla's offense and frustrate him over 25 minutes in the first five-round bout of Cannonier's UFC career.
PREDICTION: Gastelum by points (+410) - Gastelum has a granite chin and has never been finished by strikes in his career. Matter of fact, in his last 16 UFC fights going all the way back to June 2014, the current champ Adesanya is the only fighter to ever knock him down. Look for Gastelum's toughness and wrestling ability to withstand Cannonier's power in the early going before grinding him down in the later rounds on the way to a decision victory.
PREDICTION: Fight to go the distance - Yes (+104) - Given our previous two picks, this seems like the most likely outcome. While Cannonier looks to end fights early, five of Gastelum's last six fights have gone the distance, including a pair of bouts that went the full five rounds.
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