UFC 306: Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko Odds, Picks & Predictions

UFC 306 features a trilogy showdown between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko for the women's flyweight title.

Grasso pulled off an upset as a +500 underdog against Shevchenko in the first bout and held on to the belt with a draw the last time out. UFC odds opened with the third fight at close to a pick'em, but money has come in on Grasso, who is now favored at -135.

Here are my best Grasso vs. Shevchenko picks and predictions for September 14 from the Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Grasso vs Shevchenko prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Grasso (-135 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Grasso moneyline (-135 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Shevchenko is the GOAT in this division, but she had her streak of seven consecutive successful title defenses snapped in March 2023 when Grasso submitted her in the fourth round. It was a close contest, but Shevchenko struggled with Grasso's stance switches and was caught in the fourth round when she threw an unadvised spinning backfist and had her back taken. 

In the rematch last September, it was even more clear that the younger Grasso had the striking advantage, dropping Shevchenko with a punch in the second round and dictating the pace of the exchanges. However, Shevchenko secured four takedowns and had more than eight minutes of control time which led to a draw. 

Grasso has a significant boxing edge, and when she exits out of the pocket, she does so at an angle which makes it tough for Shevchenko to counter. The optics of Shevchenko being on the backfoot also don't look great to the judges, with Grasso constantly pressuring. And when Shevchenko does close the distance to implement her grappling, Grasso will punish her in the clinch. 

Shevchenko will have to rely on her wrestling and top control to grind out a win, while Grasso has more paths to victory, which has me leaning towards her on the moneyline.  

Best best analysis

Shevchenko dominated the division for years due to her crisp counter-striking, but she's slowing down at 36 years old, and Grasso has figured out her timing. We've seen a decline for many previous champs when they get to the wrong side of 35, and fighters like Shevchenko, who relied on quickness, seem to be affected the most. 

She simply doesn't have the speed to pull off her more unorthodox moves anymore, especially against someone like Grasso, who now has 45 minutes of experience against her. That familiarity and confidence means that Grasso won't display the tentative style that Shevchenko's opponents had against her when she was the boogeyman of women's MMA. 

Grasso is entering her prime at 31 and will likely evolve, while Shevchenko's best days are behind her. You're not getting the closing line value in backing Grasso now, but she's still worth a moneyline play at anything -140 and shorter. 

Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko odds

Method of Victory	Grasso	Shevchenko
To win outright	-135	+115
To win by KO/TKO	+800	+1,000
To win by decision	+175	+180
To win by submission	+440	+1,150
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 9-14.

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Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko tale of the tape

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