UFC 306: Sean O'Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili Picks, Predictions & Odds

"Suga" Sean O'Malley steps into the octagon with his bantamweight belt on the line against Merab Dvalishvili in the main event for UFC 306 betting tonight. This will be an intriguing contrast between O'Malley, who's one of the best strikers in MMA, and an elite wrestler in Dvalishvili. 

UFC odds opened with O'Malley as a +160 underdog, but money has poured in on the champ, who is now favored at -120, with Dvalishvili coming back at +100. Here are my best free UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili picks and predictions for tonight's bout.

O'Malley vs Dvalishvili prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  O'Malley (-120 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  O'Malley to win by points (+400 at BET99)

Fight analysis

O'Malley is fresh off a dominant decision victory against Marlon Vera where he proved that his previous loss to Vera (when he suffered a freak foot injury) in 2020 was a fluke. His most impressive victory came just before that when he knocked out Aljamain Sterling in the second round as a +210 underdog to claim the belt last summer. 

Beating an elite grappler like Sterling bodes well for Suga's success against the wrestling-heavy Dvalishvili who trains with Sterling at Serra-Longo Fight Team. The 33-year-old Georgian is relentless with his pressure and takedowns but he's not a submission threat and he doesn't do much damage with ground-and-pound either. He's on a 10-fight winning streak but nine of those victories have come by points. 

Every round begins standing up and lasting 25 minutes in the octagon against a dangerous striker like O'Malley is incredibly tough. Especially with O'Malley's exceptional footwork and his ability to throw with power moving backward.

Merab has been cracked in striking exchanges before and Suga is the most precise and powerful striker he's ever faced. Dvalishvili tends to get up and close and throw looping shots which will get punished by O'Malley's straight punches and snap kicks up the middle. Expect O'Malley's power and volume to lead to a win here.

Best best analysis

O'Malley is favored at -120 and oddsmakers expect this fight to go the distance (-120) which makes it bizarre that O'Malley to win by decision is installed at +400. Oddsmakers seem to think O'Malley has mostly finishing upside, which doesn't give him enough credit considering he's won by points in two of his last three bouts. 

Dvalishvili has a granite chin while his wrestling and control tend to drain time off the clock, so it'll be tough for Suga to finish him. However, O'Malley should be able to wobble or knockdown Dvalishvili, and that combined with his sky-high striking volume (his 7.67 significant strikes per minute is the fourth-highest in UFC history) will win him rounds.

There's a chance O'Malley catches Dvalishvili with something big and puts him away, but there's also a solid chance he picks him apart with his striking over 25 minutes. Especially with the renewed emphasis that many judges have been placing on damage over takedowns that don't do much. That makes this big money prop the best value play. 

Sean O'Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili odds

Method of Victory	O'Malley	Dvalishvili
To win outright	-120	+100
To win by KO/TKO	+175	+850
To win by decision	+400	+165
To win by submission	+1,250	+1,650
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 9-14.

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Sean O'Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili tale of the tape

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