Two days ago, the Minnesota Lynx went out west and beat the Las Vegas Aces by 11 points, never trailing in the second half. Frankly, the game was not as close as the 98-87 final score seemed.
Now they meet again, this time in Minneapolis, and our Aces vs. Lynx predictions and WNBA picks lean towards the home team on August 23.
Aces vs Lynx predictions
My best bet
Lynx (+130 at Caesars)
My analysis
The Minnesota Lynx are half a game out of second place in the standings because they have enjoyed the best defensive rating in the WNBA all season. They would probably be well into second place in the standings if they had not briefly lost star Napheesa Collier to plantar fasciitis for five games before the Olympics break.
Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Aces have been a middling team all season long, entering tonight fifth in net rating. On the season, Las Vegas is only 10-17 against the spread. This is not a team exceeding expectations, yet power rankings continue to value the Aces’ roster, led by MVP frontrunner A’ja Wilson.
Minnesota was a 6.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Logically, shifting homecourt two days later should shift that spread to about +0.5 or perhaps +1.5. That kind of spread would indicate no movement in the power ratings based on Wednesday, appropriate given no team is as good or as bad as its most recent game.
But +2.5? Even +3 at DraftKings? Oddsmakers and/or power-ranking bettors are further elevating the Aces?
That was the wrong move, one entirely based on narrative and faith in a fading team. It provides escalated value in tonight’s moneyline on the home team, and Minnesota has been the better team all season. It wasn’t just Wednesday.
Aces vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)
Lynx moneyline
Over 167
Napheesa Collier Over 18.5 points
Wednesday finished with 185 points for a couple of reasons. First of all, the two teams combined to shoot 24-of-49 from deep. However, that alone did not propel that game 17.5 points past its total.
In the last month of WNBA action, the Aces’ offensive rating has ranked No. 2, emphasized by also playing at the second-fastest pace. Las Vegas’s road back to high quality is via its offense, so it is leaning into it.
Collier did not mind Wednesday, going 9-of-15 from the field to score 23 points, now averaging 23.3 points in the three games since the Olympics. There is no reason to think Collier will begin to slow down tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Aces vs Lynx odds
Aces vs Lynx live odds
Get the latest Aces vs Lynx WNBA odds for tonight.
Aces vs Lynx opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas +2.0 (-108) | Minnesota -2.0 (-112)
- Moneyline: Las Vegas +118 | Minnesota -144
- Over/Under: Over 168.5 (-110) | Under 168.5 (-110)
Aces vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Lynx did indeed open as 2-point favorites after that Wednesday upset, and by Thursday’s end, they were 1-point underdogs. That then rose throughout Friday to +2.5 or +3, depending on your sportsbook.
- The total opened at 168.5 after Wednesday’s scoring outburst, and then fell 24 hours later to 167.5, valleying on Friday at 166 before settling at 167.
- The Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams.
Aces vs Lynx trend
Las Vegas is 0-6 ATS in its last six games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Lynx.
Aces vs Lynx game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Friday, 8-23-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ION |
Aces vs Lynx latest injuries
Aces: No key injuries to report.
Lynx: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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