The WNBA is firmly in its superteam era, with star-studded rosters like the Las Vegas Aces now fending off multiple other contenders featuring three or more All-Star caliber players. The Seattle Storm is one such opponent, who have combined home grown talents Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor with veteran stars Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike in an effort to unseat the two-time champs.
The road team is favored, but my Aces vs. Storm predictions and WNBA picks outline why the gap should be even larger than it is.
Aces vs Storm predictions
My best bet
Aces -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Wednesday gives us a showdown between two of the best teams in the Western Conference. While the Las Vegas Aces' 13-7 record has them just a half-win behind the Seattle Storm in the standings, nobody is fooling themselves into believing that Las Vegas isn’t the team to beat.
But to say that the first half of the 2024 season for the Aces has been uneven would be an understatement. They already have more regular season losses than in all of last year, and they began the year just 3-9 against the spread.
Their defense has been shaky, and they missed the steady veteran two-way force that is Candace Parker, who retired before the beginning of the year. They bolstered their depth by bringing Tiffany Hayes into the mix, but things really turned around when they got healthy.
More specifically, when Chelsea Gray — injured during last year's WNBA Finals — got healthy. With their organizer at point guard and one of their best defenders back in the fold, Las Vegas is a fundamentally different team.
In the eight games since Gray has returned to the lineup, not only are the Aces 7-1 straight up, but they’re 6-2 against the spread with a league-leading 14.8 net rating. This is much more akin to the dominant Las Vegas team we’ve come to expect over the past two seasons, the same team who came into the season massive favorites to repeat and become the first WNBA three-peat team since the Houston Comets.
Through all their early season struggles, the Aces have stuck to their base defensive principles. If you’re going to beat them, it won’t come off transition baskets or shots at the rim. It will have to be done in part by outshooting them.
That’s a tough ask for the Storm. The Storm have elite players all throughout their starting lineup, but they also play two bigs in Ezi Magbegor and Nneka Ogwumike who would rather do their damage inside the arc. Jordan Horston has a lot of potential, but her shooting is mostly theoretical at this stage.
Jewell Loyd is left to create a lot of the outside shots for Seattle, and she’s off to a career-bad start from downtown at 26.7%.
The Aces are experts at shrinking the floor against limited shooting teams. They did so to great effect when they played the Storm on June 19, and they’ve only gotten better since then as Gray has ramped up her activity.
With the Aces rounding into form and the Storm’s limited shooting a potentially fatal flaw, I like Las Vegas to cover on Wednesday afternoon.
Aces vs Storm same-game parlay (SGP)
Aces -4.5
Storm team total Under 84.5
Ezi Magbegor Under 13.5 points
The Aces and the Storm have been two of the Top 3 defensive teams by rating over the past three weeks, and they’ve also played twice recently enough to grow familiar with each other stylistically.
The Aces also pose a particularly formidable defensive challenge to Magbegor. A’ja Wilson and Kiah Stokes can alternate defending her and Ogwumike, but also with Gray and Jackie Young on the perimeter, the Storm’s pick and roll game should be disrupted.
Magbegor is an immensely talented two-way player, but she’s still primarily a play finisher with 72.6% of her 2-point shots coming off assists this season. If the Aces slow down the Storm’s guard play and spacing gets tight, Ezi’s production should dip.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Aces vs Storm odds
Aces vs Storm live odds
Get the latest Aces vs Storm WNBA odds for tonight.
Aces vs Storm opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas -4.5 | Seattle +4.5
- Moneyline: Las Vegas -201 | Seattle +173
- Over/Under: Over 173.5 | Under 173.5
Aces vs Storm spread and Over/Under analysis
- Las Vegas opened as little as 3.5-point favorites over Seattle, but that’s been bet up a point and a half to -5 at most sportsbooks, with a handful still offering it at -4.5 as of Wednesday morning.
- The Aces are 5-1 to the Over in their last six road games.
- Wednesday’s total has been trending down. After opening at 175, most books are offering it at 173.5.
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Aces vs Storm trend
The Aces are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Storm.
Aces vs Storm game info
| Location: | Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-10-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Fox 5 Vegas, Fox 13 Seattle |
Aces vs Storm latest injuries
Aces: M. Gustafson (out).
Storm: M. Holmes (out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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