WNBA All-Star Game Picks and Predictions: Team Wilson vs. Team Stewart

Finding the perfect bet during an All-Star game is like a Hail Mary — you throw your favorite narrative or gut feeling in the air and hope it lands in the end zone.

2022 will be no different as Chicago will host its first WNBA All-Star game tomorrow afternoon. This year's matchup pits Team Stewart vs. Team Wilson, led by Breanna Stewart and A'ja Wilson.

After last year's oddsmakers made a colossal mistake causing historical line movement on the annual game, what should bettors expect this year? Expect a significant uptick in points after a meager scoring output last season.

WNBA All-Star Game odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of Saturday, July 9.

WNBA All-Star Game predictions

• Prediction: Team Wilson +1 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 267.5 (-110)
• Best Bet: Over 267.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 7/09/2022 at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

WNBA All-Star Game Team Wilson vs Team Stewart betting preview

Injuries

Team Wilon: No injuries to report.
Team Stewart: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

WNBA All-Star Game betting analysis

Spread analysis

Last year's game used a new format and many players appeared to take it personally, as evident by the physicality. The 2021 WNBA All-Star Game was a gritty match that paired up the USA Basketball women's national team against a team of WNBA All-Stars who were either not selected for Team USA or had other FIBA nationalities.

Many women on the court who the national team may have overlooked took this personally and weren't going to allow the game to be a layup line. Will things be different during the 2022 game? The two teams have distinct advantages, which will make for a competitive and closely contested contest.

Team Stewart should have no problems scoring in this one, as they boast the league's top scorer in Breanna Stewart (21 points per game). Stewart plays with real tenacity on both ends of the floor and will look to put up a lot of points in this matchup. Stewart isn't the only lethal scoring option in this one, as she has two other Top 5 scorers in the WNBA in Arike Ogunbowale (19.5) and Skylar Diggins-Smith (18.9). That trio will undoubtedly be a lot to keep up with in an exhibition where offense tends to dominate.

Team Wilson will look to counter Team Stewart's offensive bursts with their clear edge in strong rebounding. A'ja Wilson will look to lead the way for her team by doing what she does best — rebound the ball better than everyone. Wilson has dominated the boards, leading the league in rebounds (10.1).

In addition to Wilson, Sylvia Fowles and Candace Parker rank second and fourth, respectively, in rebounding. While Team Stewart has the better scoring options, they could get roughed around and beat up in this one.

All-Star games are primarily about narratives and storylines. Candace Parker is one of the most celebrated women athletes in recent history, and this game is being held in Chicago, where she currently plays for the Sky.

I believe Parker will be motivated to put on a show for the home crowd and set a reminder that even at age 36, she remains one of the game's very best.

PREDICTION: Team Wilson +1 (-110 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

This year's Over/Under is set at 267.5, which is far more points than the total outcome of last year's game (178).

Why such a drastic shift? As stated earlier, last year's competition was unusual and personal, as it pitted the national team against a team of WNBA All-Stars. They were either not selected for Team USA or had other FIBA nationalities. That was a rare moment when an exhibition felt more than just a fun game between the league's best.

This year will adjust to a more standard format; thus, an uptick in points is inevitable. There are three main reasons to believe the scoring output will be high in this one, starting with the four-point play. The basketball world has seen a significant uptick in three-point shooting.

The four-point shot will have four locations on the floor (two on each end of the floor) and 28 feet away from the basket. This gives reason to believe the pace and offensive output of the game should be much higher than last year.

Another rule change that all but guarantees that the All-Star game will look something like a track meet tomorrow is the adjusted shot clock. Each team will only get 20 seconds per possession, unlike the typical 24-second shot clock. We should expect the guards on each team to push the ball up the floor quickly and get into sets much faster.

The final rule change that will lean this game into a more offensive showdown is automatic points for free-throw attempts instead of having players take shots from the charity stripe. The free throw change will speed up the game's duration and guarantee more points for everyone across the board.

Players are only expected to shoot free throws in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter and, if needed, overtime. For all of the above reasons, it seems likely that the Over is the pick here.

We should expect a fun afternoon filled with a ton of scoring.

PREDICTION: Over 267.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Best Bet

The scoring output in this one will be evident, and a few players will take advantage of the rule changes. Let's start with the league's top three-point shooter in Kelsey Plum, who will undoubtedly be looking to make her mark on this game utilizing the four-point play.

Plum is averaging 19.9 points and 5.7 assists per game, with an unbelievable stole from behind the ark. Plum is third in the league in three-point attempts (7.7) and first in makes per game (3.2). Expect her to impact this game; if she gets hot early, she could be vying for MVP.

Another player who should take advantage of the rule changes is New York Liberty's, Sabrina Ionescu. The 24-year-old star is one of the game's promising young talents, which was on full display in a recent 30-point triple-double performance. Ionescu's third triple-double of her career tied her for the most in history, alongside Parker.

The pace I anticipate this game to be played with fits Ionescu's game so much. She can dribble, shoot, get to the basket, and everything else in between. Young All-Stars typically play harder than the older veterans in exhibitions, and she is a candidate for a big game. She has been stellar for the Liberty, averaging 17.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game.

Since 1999, there's never been an All-Star game that's amassed the 267.5 line set for tomorrow. The league changed the rules because they want to see the scoring output skyrocket, and I believe even at such a high number, the Over is the play here.

PREDICTION: Over 267.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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