Atlanta Dream vs Connecticut Sun Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Complete Connecticut Squad Sizzles Against Dream

The Connecticut Sun will look to extend their winning streak to three games as they host the Atlanta Dream in a WNBA matchup on Thursday night.

Connecticut (8-2) played its last game in Atlanta on Sunday, beating the Dream 89-77. Atlanta (3-5) rebounded from that loss on Tuesday with its best win of the year, an 86-79 victory in New York against the Liberty.

Outside of two losses to the so-called “superteams,” Connecticut has been dominant against its WNBA competition this year. We’ll break down whether it can get a second straight win over Atlanta in our free WNBA picks and predictions for Dream vs. Sun on June 15. 

Dream vs Sun best odds

Dream vs Sun picks and predictions

At the start of the WNBA season, the expectation was that the Las Vegas Aces and the New York Liberty would stand head and shoulders above the rest of the league. The Aces have lived up to that reputation, but so far, the second powerhouse has been the Connecticut Sun.

That’s not a complete surprise. The Sun finished last season with a 25-11 record, just one game back of the Aces (and the Chicago Sky) for the best regular season mark in the league. While Connecticut doesn’t have the star power of Las Vegas, it has a deep roster with multiple players who can pace the offense on any given night. 

Veteran forward Dewanna Bonner leads the way with 17.3 points per game, and scored a career high 41 points in a win over the Aces last week. But in their first 10 games, six different players have taken turns leading Connecticut in scoring on any given night, including Tiffany Hayes (10.9 ppg) , Alyssa Thomas (14.1 ppg), Natisha Hiedeman (8.6 ppg), Rebecca Allen (5.5 ppg), and Brionna Jones (14.9 ppg). 

It’s difficult for any team in the league to defend all those scoring options. The Sun have also been among the best defensive squads in the WNBA, allowing just 77.7 points per game. That’s the second-lowest mark in the league, trailing only the Washington Mystics (74.8). 

We saw both sides of that equation at work when these teams met on Sunday. The Sun were able to score 89 points against the Atlanta Dream defense, with Jones and Thomas leading five scorers who finished in double figures for Connecticut. On the other end of the court, the Dream scored just 77 points, significantly below their season average of 83.0. 

Atlanta is coming off its biggest win of the season, a stunning upset of the Liberty in New York in which the Dream dominated the second half to come away with a seven-point triumph. How did they pull this off? They took advantage of one of the worst offensive games in the career of superstar Breanna Stewart, who shot a putrid 1-for-14 from the floor. An injury to Sabrina Ionescu also left New York a bit shorthanded and without one of its best players.

The Dream won’t be so fortunate against Connecticut. The Sun come into tonight’s game fully healthy with a completely clean injury report. Their team structure also leaves them less vulnerable to one or two players having a bad night, as they have a plethora of options to turn to if necessary. 

Atlanta may be riding a high after its win over the Liberty, but this matchup is something of a nightmare for the Dream. I’m laying the points with the Sun tonight.

My best bet: Sun -7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Dream vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis

The Sun opened tonight’s game as a 7.5-point favorite over the Dream in the WNBA odds. While some sites have stuck to that number, others have pushed the line to Connecticut -8.5. You can get Atlanta +8.5 at -115 if you’re looking to get maximum value on the underdog tonight.

Both teams have played evenly to the spread so far this season. The Dream are exactly 4-4 ATS on the year, while the Sun have put up a 5-4-1 ATS mark in 2023.

I’ve already talked about why I like the Sun tonight. Atlanta’s success against the Liberty was somewhat misleading due to injuries and historically bad performances from New York. Assuming the Dream play to their normal standard, and Connecticut gets at least a couple of good performances from its long list of capable scorers, the Sun should be able to cover.

Tonight’s total opened at 163 points, and the Over/Under is still around that number at most books. If you’d like to take the Over at 162.5 or the Under at 163.5, you can also find those numbers at some sites.

Both teams have played above the total the majority of the time this year. The Over is 5-3 when the Dream play, as well as 6-4 in Sun games in 2023.

Tonight’s game features a contrast in styles. Atlanta is one of the fastest teams in the league, while Connecticut plays at one of the slowest paces in the WNBA. That doesn’t usually make a huge difference in terms of totals in this league, but there’s still a notable gap here: the Sun have played to an average score of 159.7, while the Dream are averaging a total of 168.4.

While the total feels about right tonight, it’s worth remembering that the first game landed on 166 points, hitting the Over in the process. With so much scoring punch on the floor, I’m leaning towards taking the Over again tonight, preferably at that 162.5 number.

Dream vs Sun betting trend to know

The Sun are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Dream. Find more WNBA betting trends for Dream vs. Sun.

Dream vs Sun game info

Dream vs Sun key injuries

Dream: Aari McDonald G (Out), Danielle Robinson G (Out), Iliana Rupert C (Out).

Sun: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Pages related to this topic