Atlanta Dream vs Dallas Wings Game 1 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Dallas Continues to Have Atlanta's Number

The second batch of the WNBA first-round playoffs series kicks off on Friday with a four vs. five matchup between the Dallas Wings and the Atlanta Dream.

The Wings closed the season on an offensive heater, with stars Arike Ogunbowale and Satou Sabally forming one of the most devastating duos in the W. The Dream have offensive talent of their own, but they’ll need to raise their level of play as well as their consistency if they want to advance.

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Game 1 of Dream vs. Wings believe Dallas’ size and offensive firepower will prove too much for Atlanta.

Dream vs Wings Game 1 best odds

Dream vs Wings Game 1 picks and predictions

This may be a four vs. five matchup in terms of seeding, but the gap between these teams is significant. That’s because, bluntly put, this is a bad draw for the Atlanta Dream.

There are a few reasons for that, but the most crucial will also be immediately obvious to anyone tuning in to watch this game on Friday: the Dallas Wings tower over the Dream. The Wings are one of the biggest teams in the WNBA... and Atlanta is one of the smallest. 

Cheyenne Parker is the tallest player on the Dream at 6-foot-4, while the Wings have three players 6-foot-6 or taller, including both Teaira McCowan and Kalani Brown who are both 6-foot-7.

The Dream and the Wings played three times this season and the Wings won each game by at least seven points. The size mismatch has been evident in the numbers too. Dallas outrebounded Atlanta 94 to 67 combined over its last two games.

One of the issues that has plagued the Dream all season long has been their inability to find a flow on offense. Despite having a collection of good offensive players in Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, and Parker, their offense has flatlined for long stretches this season. For much of the year, Atlanta's offensive rating ranked among the worst in the WNBA, next to non-competitive teams like the Phoenix Mercury and the Seattle Storm.

That problem is only going to be magnified against Dallas. If the Dream offense can’t get going in transition, they like to dump the ball down low to Parker as one way to initiate offense. However, McCowan and Dallas’ size generally presents a huge challenge for the Dream, and specifically for Parker. In fact, Parker has yet to score 20 points in a game against the Wings this season.

Dallas shouldn’t have the same issues. The Wings' offense trailed only that of the Las Vegas Aces and the New York Liberty over the full season. Over the last month, their offensive rating of 112 was actually four points better than the Aces. The Dream went the other way, finishing 9th on offense with their net rating over the last month plummeting to -3.8. 

Satou Sabally is likely to win Most Improved Player for her growth as an on-ball force this season, and Arike Ogunbowale is a strong compliment to her playmaking as an aggressive perimeter scorer. The two are tough to stop, and there’s rarely a game when both of them are off. But even when they are, the Wings best in class 36.9% offensive rebounding rate means they rarely pay for it.

Sabally is also a strong defender at 6-foot-4. She has better agility and footwork than most guards, can guard up or down, and can shift onto Howard or Gray if either of them gets going.

While regular season matchups are far from gospel, it’s also worth mentioning that the Wings won all three games against the Dream both straight up and against the spread this season. Dallas just presents too many problems, so I like the Wings to cover on Friday.

My best bet: Wings -6 (-110 at bet365)

Dream vs Wings Game 1 spread and Over/Under analysis

The Wings opened at -6.5 and it’s mostly held steady at that number. While I don’t like relying on trends overly much when considering playoff matchups, the numbers here are overwhelmingly in Dallas’ favor.

The Wings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games playing on three or more days of rest, as well as 4-1 ATS overall. That’s impressive enough, but it’s the Dream’s ineptitude that really makes you raise an eyebrow.

The Dream simply cannot cover away from home, as they are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games. Atlanta is also just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a winning record. Both of those statistics could not bode more poorly for the Dream’s chances to succeed in the playoffs.

Both teams seek to lock down the paint and in turn, rely on perimeter creation from their wings and guards on offense. However, the Wings should have the edge on both counts. They’re bigger and more skilled, and their style of play has coalesced this year into more than the sum of its parts.

Friday’s total came in between 169.5 and 170 and is now variously available between 169 and 170 depending on the sportsbook. Given how impressive the Wings offense has been of late, that does seem a touch on the low side.

Oddsmakers have consistently underestimated how strong the Dallas offense has been over the latter half of the season. That’s seen the Wings ride an incredible streak of Overs, with the Over cashing in 17 of their last 21 games overall. That trend has only been stronger at home, where the Over is 10-1 in their last 11 games at College Park Center.

Meanwhile, the Dream’s poor offensive play has seen their games go the other way. The Under is 19-7 over their last 26 games and has gone 7-1 in their last eight on the road. With McCowan likely locking down Parker as a half-court outlet, it’s hard to trust the Dream offense to perform any better today.

Dream vs Wings betting trend to know

The Dream are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against Western Conference teams. Find more WNBA betting trends for Dream vs. Wings.

Dream vs Wings Game 1 game info

Dream vs Wings Game 1 key injuries

Dream: AD Durr G (Questionable), Nia Coffey F (Out).
Wings: Diamond DeShields G (Out), Lou Lopez Senechal G (Out).

Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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