Atlanta Dream vs Dallas Wings Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Ogunbowale Keeps Wings Airborne

The Atlanta Dream and Dallas Wings are on opposite paths when they meet inside College Park Center tonight.

After a strong start to the 2023 season, Dallas has dropped three straight games and is tumbling down the Western Conference standings while dragging WNBA bettors with it (0-3 ATS). In the East, Atlanta has overcome a rocky opening month to win three straight contests heading into Tuesday, covering the spread in each of those victories.

I run down the spread and Over/Under total for this non-conference clash and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Dream at Wings on June 20.

Dream vs Wings best odds

Dream vs Wings picks and predictions

Desperation is developing in Dallas. The Wings are mired in a three-game slide and face a road-heavy schedule the rest of the month, hitting the highway for the next three games following this home outing with Atlanta on Tuesday.

The Wings continue to lean into their offense to overwhelm opponents, playing at the quickest tempo in the league and scoring 85.5 points per game. Heading up that high-powered attack is fiery guard Arike Ogunbowale.

Ogunbowale is pouring in 23.5 points per night and is coming off a showdown with Seattle star Jewell Loyd last time out, recording a career-best 41 points in Saturday’s loss to the Storm.

Today’s total is skyrocketing with action on the Over, as the Dream and Wings sit No. 1 and No. 2 in pace, and both average more than 85 points per contest. Ogunbowale player props are calling for an Over/Under of 24.5 points (Over -113).

Player projections forecast more than 26 points from the explosive 5-foot-8 guard. Not only is she a threat from just about every spot on the floor, but she plays her best ball at home. Ogunbowale hangs almost 26 points per homestand, shooting 42% from the field and 34% from beyond the arc in those outings (compared to 20.8 ppg, 35% FG, 28.6 3PT on the road).

With the total growing, the game script and the matchup with Atlanta very much feed into Arike's strengths. The Dream invite an up-and-down style of play and give up a ton of fastbreak buckets. Dallas has no problem finding that high gear and loves to score in transition. Ogunbowale is the Wings' motor, leading the team in fastbreak points, and faces an Atlanta defense that could be gassed on the final game of this compact road trip.

The Dream found themselves in a shootout with the Fever — the WNBA’s slowest-paced team — on the weekend, watching Indiana fire up a season-high regulation tally of 94 points on 56% shooting. Atlanta allowed 85 points to Dallas in their first meeting back in late May — due in large part to transition buckets off turnovers — and 27 of those came from Ogunbowale.

She’s gone for 25 or more in three of her last four games heading into Tuesday and given the game script, player projections, and the Dream’s defensive gaps, adding another 25-plus point effort is well within Arike’s reach.

My best bet: Arike Ogunbowale Over 24.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)

Dream vs Wings spread and Over/Under analysis

WNBA odds opened with Dallas as a 3.5-point home favorite, with that number slimming to as low as -2.5 at some sharper online markets as of Tuesday morning. According to Covers Consensus, 56% of WNBA picks are siding with the visitor.

The Wings were living up to their offseason hype, tipping off the 2023 campaign with a 5-3 straight-up mark. However, with injuries and international absences testing its depth, Dallas has stumbled into a three-game losing skid, hitting rock bottom with a 109-103 home loss to Seattle as 8.5-point chalk last Saturday.

Atlanta, on the other hand, has shocked WNBA bettors with its recent uptick. The Dream have run one of the toughest slates of schedule, loaded with title contenders throughout June. They lost three in a row to Las Vegas, New York, and Connecticut before stringing together a trio of victories versus the Liberty, Sun, and — most recently — Indiana on the weekend. Today’s trip to Dallas will be Atlanta’s fourth straight road game and its fourth away game in eight days.

My WNBA power ratings produced a spread closer to Wings -2.5 even after adding a little extra for home court considering the Dream’s compact travel schedule. These non-conference foes played each other in the season opener, with Dallas winning 85-78 as 2-point road favorites in ATL back on May 20.

This total has seen a lot of early movement, opening as low as 168.5 points and quickly jumping up to 171.5 overnight and into Tuesday morning.

The Wings and Dream rank No. 1 and No. 2 in WNBA pace ratings as the only teams with plus-100 metrics in that tempo measurement. That quick approach has also produced two of the higher scoring averages (85.5 and 85.6 respectively). And with neither side known for its defensive prowess, this Over/Under could continue to climb.

Their first matchup a month ago closed with a total of 161 O/U and these clubs narrowly topped the total with 163 combined points. They both rank among the better Overs bets in the WNBA, with Atlanta owning a 7-3 Over/Under count and playing above the number in five of the last six contests. Dallas is 2-1 O/U during its losing skid and sits 6-5 O/U on the season.

Dream vs Wings betting trend to know

The Over is 5-2 in Dream’s last seven road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Dream vs. Wings.

Dream vs Wings game info

Dream vs Wings key injuries

Dream: Aari McDonald G (Out)
Wings: Diamond DeShields F (Out), Lou Lopez Senechal G (Out), Teaira McCowan C (Out)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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