Atlanta Dream vs New York Liberty Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Atlanta Can't Keep Up With Jones

The Atlanta Dream have had plenty of sleepless nights after facing the New York Liberty this season.

While Atlanta did score a victory in Brooklyn back on June 3, New York bookended that loss with 23-point and 30-point wins in the ATL.

Tonight’s home stand with Atlanta sees the Liberty laying 8.5 points inside the Barclays Center, with New York trying to extend a three-game winning run. Atlanta, on the other hand, has roughed up some of the WNBA’s softer teams but has come up short versus elite competition.

I run down the WNBA odds and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Dream vs. Liberty on July 27.

Dream vs Liberty best odds

Dream vs Liberty picks and predictions

The potential for this Liberty team is tremendous, especially now that former MVP Jonquel Jones is healthy and finding her place in the pecking order.

Jones has seen her activity in the offense improve in recent outings, averaging 13.9 points in July. She’s attempting an average of nine field goal attempts per game this month, and those shots have jumped over the last three games, with Jones firing up 10, 11, and 14 attempts, respectively. She’s also added extra points at the foul line, producing 13, 18, and 27 points, respectively, in that span.

Jones’ WNBA player props for Thursday’s home stand are all over the place, with the scoring total as low as 12.5 (Over -125), while other markets are now dealing as high as 14.5 (Over -104). Projections range from 12.9 to a ceiling of 15.56 for the veteran forward, making the Over 12.5 -125 one of the best lines out there.

Atlanta’s defense hasn’t been tested much in recent weeks, thanks to that soft stretch of schedule. This meeting with New York is a massive step up in competition.

Jones has success in limited minutes versus the Dream earlier in the year, with 11 points on 10 shots in 21 minutes, 12 points on nine shots in 23 minutes, and most recently scoring 18 points on 6-for-9 shooting in 24 minutes on June 23.

Jones has been logging more and more floor time since getting over a foot injury. She’s averaging more than 27 minutes per game in July, and has logged 30 or more in two of the previous three games. This shorter prop total is a reflection of her season average of 11.5 points, and not her recent uptick in offense.

As mentioned, you will need to shop for the lowest total on Jones’ scoring prop. There are some books dealing 13.5 (Over -130), but you can get 12.5 Over -125 at bet365.

My best bet: Jonquel Jones Over 12.5 points (-125 at bet365)

Dream vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis

New York hit the board as big as a 9-point home chalk for this fourth meeting with Atlanta. That spread has since dipped to -8.5 at some books, with -9 still showing as of Thursday afternoon. My WNBA power ratings produced a projected spread of Liberty -8.24.

New York nearly suffered one of the biggest upsets of the 2023 season last time out, crawling back from a major margin to the Seattle Storm to win 86-82 in a game where they closed as a 15-point home favorite against the worst team in the league.

That finish extended a bad run for Liberty backers, who have suffered through a 9-13 ATS season, and a 1-6 ATS mark in the team’s last seven contests. New York’s offense continues to shine with a star-studded lineup, but the defensive lulls have cost WNBA bettors laying the points with New York.

The team lugs a defensive rating of 103.6 in that span, allowing almost 87 average points against, compared to just 80.3 points with an advanced rating of 98.9 in the 15 games prior. That doesn’t bode well with Atlanta on deck.

The Dream bring one of the league’s better scoring attacks to Brooklyn tonight, with Atlanta putting up 85 points an outing fueled up an up-tempo approach that ranks No. 1 in pace rating by a large margin (100.36).

Atlanta has leaned into that offense to overwhelm recent opponents, especially with some of the league’s weaker defenses on tap. The Dream have won eight of their last 10 games (7-3 ATS), picking on bottom-tier teams like Phoenix, Seattle, and Chicago (twice), while also getting advantageous encounters with injury-plagued rosters like Los Angeles, Washington, and Minnesota.

Tonight’s Over/Under total speaks to the scoring prowess of both clubs, opening at 173.5 points and climbing to 174. This total is a touch taller than the closing number for the three previous matchups between Atlanta and New York, with those games producing a 2-1 O/U record.

The Dream are 12-11 Over/Under on the season, with an abrupt turnover for their total results in recent weeks. Atlanta started the season by going Over in 12 of their first 16 outings, but have since played below the total in each of the previous seven games.

New York is 14-8 O/U so far in 2023, with that defensive downtick leading to a 5-2 Over run in the last seven contests. The Liberty boast the second-best offensive rating in the WNBA with a slew of scoring options, producing 88.7 points a game.

Dream vs Liberty betting trend to know

The Over is 6-0 in the Liberty’s last six conference games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Dream vs. Liberty.

Dream vs Liberty game info

Dream vs Liberty key injuries

Dream: None.
Liberty: Stefanie Dolson C (Out), Han Xu C (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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