Best WNBA Player Props Today: Aces Can't Contain Cardoso

Prop bet #1: Clark Under 6.5 assists

The highlight reels — actually, the lowlight reels have shown plenty of Caitlin Clark potential assists that instead turn into turnovers or missed shots from teammates. As too many people laughed at a few such plays on Sunday, Clark proceeded to hand out 13 dimes, her second straight game and third out of four clearing this prop.

The timing and chemistry were always going to come in time... but why fade those assists tonight?

First of all, Clark fell short of this prop in five straight games before the recent surge. Secondly, Seattle has more reason — and precedent — than most opponents to slow down the phenomenal rookie.

Clark has played the Storm twice, handing out seven and then nine assists. Seattle has seen her at her best, though the Storm won both games. That film study probably felt rather personal this week with four days to prep.

Those showings from Clark were abnormal, frankly. Seattle holds opponents to 23.6 assists per 100 possessions, the second-best rate in the WNBA, and the Storm’s perimeter defense is the greatest strength of the No. 3 defensive rating.

Seattle’s defense should revert to its truer form and, in turn, slow down Clark to her more usual numbers.

Caitlin Clark prop: Under 6.5 assists (-105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Bonner Under 16.5 points

DeWanna Bonner hasn't cracked this prop in her last five games. Two of those fell short by only the hook, but the other three were each short by at least three buckets.

Bonner has gone just 5-for-24 from deep in this stretch after going 17-for-40 (42.5%) in her previous eight games. Unless she's getting to the free throw line, everything else has dried up on Bonner.

In those two games out of the last five when Bonner reached 16 points, she went 8 of 9 and 3 of 4 from the line — the only times she took more than three free throws in the last six games. That would be the only reason to doubt this thought, given the Mystics rank last in the WNBA in free throws allowed per game, but that rate ranks in the middle of the pack since June 7.

Against the spread records don't dictate prop picks, obviously, but they do speak to a team’s overall value compared to expectations. The Mystics began the year 4-5-1 ATS and have since gone 6-1.

Washington’s defensive rating has ranked No. 4 since June 7 and is trending up while Bonner is trending down, creating a combination of value here.

DeWanna Bonner prop: Under 16.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Cardoso double-double

Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese rightfully and understandably have received the vast majority of conversation around the current rookie class. Cameron Brink got some notice until her ACL injury unfortunately halted her season.

Don't sleep on Kamilla Cardoso. The SC product missed the start of the season due to a shoulder injury, not taking the court until this month, and even then needing four games to ramp up her minutes.

But now Cardoso is clearly full-go, and she's filling the stat sheet. Cardoso has rebound totals of 10, 11, and 10 since all minutes restrictions were completely removed while scoring 10, nine, and 16 points.

Betting Cardoso to log a double-double against the Aces is a risky move, hence the +180 payout, but let’s acknowledge a few facts about the Aces right now.

They're shallow, particularly on the inside. A’ja Wilson grabs 19.9% of available rebounds, but after her, only 6-foot-3 Kiah Stokes snags more than 8.5% among players actually in Las Vegas’ rotation. And Stokes plays just 21.4 minutes per game, grabbing 6.1 rebounds.

At 6-foot-7, Cardoso is already grabbing 17.2% of available rebounds. She'll live on the glass, and her 51.5% effective field goal rate should help turn some of those boards into points.

Kamilla Cardoso prop: Double-double (+180 at FanDuel)