Atlanta Dream vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Phoenix's Offense Starts Fast

It’s turning into a lost season for the Phoenix Mercury. With two months still left on the schedule, anyone who bet the Under on their season win total of 21.5 is already counting their cash. Even if Phoenix wins all 15 of its remaining games, it can’t surpass 21 victories.

Things look bleak for tonight’s home stand with the Atlanta Dream.

Superstar center Brittney Griner is still away from the club, addressing her mental health, and the team is mired in a three-game losing skid in which it’s lost by margins of 13, 15 and 23 points.

Atlanta is responsible for one of those one-sided results, beating up on Phoenix 78-65 as a 7.5-point home chalk on July 25.

I measure up this non-conference rematch and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Dream at Mercury on August 3.

Dream vs Mercury best odds

Dream vs Mercury picks and predictions

I’ll be straight with you: there aren’t many bets I like for this game. The spread is a little wonky — especially with Brittney Griner out again — and the prop markets are heavily juiced toward any wager I’d consider making.

The Under is being widely considered across the market and the total is shifting down with the way these teams are trending. Atlanta is on a 1-9 Over/Under run and Phoenix has stayed below the number in five of its last six showings.

However, four of those came on the road, where the Mercury’s offense slips to worst in the league. The team is much more competitive — at least scoring the ball — inside Footprint Center. It has shown a propensity to start strong before running out of gas in the final two frames.

The Mercury have posted first-half scoring totals of 40, 43, and 42 in their three most recent home stands and did so against defenses far stingier than Atlanta, facing Connecticut, Chicago, and Los Angeles. They shot a collective 49% from the floor in those opening halves and owned an offensive rating of 108.7 over those 20-minute segments.

Phoenix averages 41.6 first-half points at home on the season, powered by a 1H offensive rating of 105.0. That’s a significant difference compared to first-half production on the road and a notable change from the second half of those home games, with the scoring dipping to just 35.3 points in the final 20 minutes and a 2H offensive rating of 92.8 at home.

The Dream watch host teams score 85.5 points against on the season (fourth most) and even with the defense tightening the past month, they’re still giving up 82.3 points per road game. They allow an average of 46 first-half points on the road, including 54 and 57 1H points in recent road losses to Vegas and New York.

Now, Phoenix isn’t anywhere near the offensive prowess of those powerhouses but it does play a little quicker tempo without Griner in the middle and her replacement in the starting lineup, Megan Gustafson, has enjoyed a recent uptick in output.

She's scored 17 points in each of the past two games filling in for BG and is averaging more than 15 points over the previous five outings.

In a game that has very little to like, I'm planning to get this Over quick — Over the Mercury’s first-half team total, that is.

My best bet: Mercury first-half team total Over 39.5 (-125 at bet365)

Dream vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis

The Dream opened as 7.5-point road favorites with Griner ruled out for the third straight game. This spread jumped to as high as -8.5 at some shops but the market consensus is sticking to -7.5 as of Thursday afternoon.

My WNBA power ratings had this game projected at Atlanta -3.5 with Griner on the floor for Phoenix. Without the 6-foot-9 center, this spread should be in the -6 to -7 range, and correctly pricing the worst teams in the league — like Phoenix — is a tougher task.

The Dream exploded out of the gates in the last matchup with the Mercury, holding a 45-33 lead at halftime and a 71-49 advantage in the fourth quarter before taking their foot off the gas down the stretch to finish with a 13-point victory late last month.

Griner scored all 16 of her points in the first half and Phoenix was playing without veteran guard Diana Taurasi, who is expected to be in action at home tonight as she goes for 10,000 career points (just 18 away). The Mercury were a dismal 38% from the floor in that loss, including 5-for-24 from beyond the arc, yet benefitted from 17 turnovers from the Dream, which they flipped into 18 easy points.

Pheonix has shown life inside Footprint Center in recent home stands, winning and covering in its last three games as hosts. The Mercury own a net rating of -0.8 at home vs. a league-worst rating of -16.2 on the road.

Atlanta has been able to handle the bottom-tier teams in the WNBA but struggles when taking a step up in competition. The Dream are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings against foes with a sub-.500 records and their recent stats have been puffed up a bit due to a July calendar that featured several shite teams.

Atlanta finished the month with the third-best net rating (+8.2) but a 6-5 ATS count, falling back to earth against stronger opponents like New York and Connecticut. The Dream were put in their place Tuesday, losing 93-72 to the Aces as 13.5-point road underdogs.

This Over/Under total for tonight’s non-conference tilt hit the board at 165 points and has since slumped to 163 with early play on the Under.

Phoenix’s lack of offensive pop has produced five Under results in its last six games, with the Mercury marching out an offensive rating of 93.8 in that span. In fact, the only team with a lower offensive rating in that stretch is Atlanta, which is on a 1-9 O/U run in its last 10 games overall.

The Dream’s once high-octane offense has sputtered considerably, averaging just over 77 points since July 20 after posting 86.4 points an outing in the first 20 games of the season. Atlanta is still playing at the fastest pace in the WNBA but is shooting just 41% from the floor in those last six games.

These teams finished well below the closing total of 164.5 points when they last met in Atlanta. 

Dream vs Mercury betting trend to know

The Mercury are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games against an opponent with a winning record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Dream vs. Mercury.

Dream vs Mercury game info

Dream vs Mercury key injuries

Dream: No key injuries to report. 
Mercury: Brittney Griner C (Out), Skylar Diggins-Smith G (Out). 
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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