Atlanta Dream vs Washington Mystics Prediction, Picks, and Odds: ATL Kept In Check

The Atlanta Dream and Washington Mystics are both coming off losses to the rampaging New York Liberty and will now square off against each other for a chance to get back on track on Wednesday, June 28. While the Dream were blown out by 30 points, it’s perhaps the Mystics who suffered the more crushing loss, as they failed to close out New York despite leading by eight with just over two minutes remaining.

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Dream vs. Mystics believe Washington’s trademark defense will be the key to this game turning in their favor as well as toward the Under.

Dream vs Mystics best odds

Dream vs Mystics picks and predictions

Whenever I see the Washington Mystics on the WNBA odds listings, my mind goes to one place: the Under. That’s because at just 91.6 Washington’s defensive rating remains tops in the WNBA by a sizeable margin. It has the best guard defense in the league by far, as well as allowing the fewest points in the paint. The Mystics are just unpleasant to play against (and conversely, a joy to watch and bet on).

I strongly considered taking the Under on one of the many guard player props available, but the vig on them was simply too much to squeeze solid expected value from. Instead, we’re going with the Mystics' best-in-class defense combined with the knock-on effect of losing Shakira Austin to steer Wednesday’s game to Under 163.5, while also taking the Mystics to win straight up.

Austin going down against the Liberty was a massive bummer for Mystics fans, as the second-year pro was having an outstanding season. She’s expected to miss around three weeks with a hip injury. 

That means a lot more minutes for Tianna Hawkins, who is shorter and not as skilled. Hawkins is getting older and it’s fair to wonder how she’ll respond to playing more than 20 minutes per game, and what happens if the Mystics have to dig deeper into their rotation and give real minutes to Amanda Zahui B?

Washington will miss Austin’s size and fluidity on both ends, which puts a lot on Elena Delle Donne’s already-crowded plate. The “Delle Devil” is the trump card of the Washington offense. If they can’t get something in transition and Natasha Cloud can’t bully her matchup in the post, then the go-to move is to get the ball to EDD and have her work out of the block. And she does so incredibly efficiently from all three levels. It helps that she’s literally the best free-throw shooter in the history of the WNBA.

Austin then functions as the lesser version of Delle Donne on offense in the sense that when the Mystics' offense gets bogged down in the halfcourt (as happens often) they can reliably throw the ball to her in the post to bail them out with a decent look. If EDD is on the bench, no such option exists for the Mystics, meaning their offense could struggle even more than usual. And struggle it does, as only the 2-11 Phoenix Mercury have a worse offensive rating this season.

On the other side of the ball, I’m expecting more of the same from Washington’s elite defense. The Mystics routinely push opposing teams deep into the shot clock and make them work through multiple actions. Patient teams with good passing, like the New York Liberty, can eventually find enough seams to make it work. But the Dream as a team are short on passing acumen. 

The Dream generate the third-fewest points off assists in the W, and unlike some other teams in that mold, still turn the ball over a lot. What that suggests is that they’re a team that isn’t trying to be an isolation squad like the Dallas Wings, rather, they’re making the passes and just doing so poorly. Washington eats teams like those alive.

The Dream concede the most opponent points off turnovers in the league, and those kinds of defense-to-offense plays are what let the Washington offense sing. No team in the league generates more points off opponent turnovers than the Mystics, it seems highly likely that Dream turnovers will swing this game in Washington’s favor.

I’m convinced that the Mystics are going to grind Atlanta’s sometimes stagnant offense to a complete halt on Wednesday, but I’m also not enormously confident in their ability to follow up on their best offensive outing of the season without Austin available. Still, they’re the better team and their strengths make them a uniquely difficult matchup for the Dream. That’s why the Mystics moneyline and Under at 163.5 is my favorite pick on the board.

My best bet: Mystics moneyline and Under 163.5 (+160 at Betway)

Dream vs Mystics spread and Over/Under analysis

The line for Wednesday’s game opened as low as Washington -4.5 but has risen to -5.5 at most books. That’s one reason I’m taking Mystics moneyline and Under rather than to cover; I hate betting the favorite once the line has already been stripped of significant value.

But there is still some logic to going with the Mystics to beat the spread. For starters, they’re on a bit of a roll. Washington is 4-0 against the spread in their last four games, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record. Unlike some talented teams, the Mystics take care of business against the have-nots of the Association. 

The counter trend however is that the Dream have been shockingly good on the road. Not only did they pick up a signature win against the Liberty on June 13, they followed that up with another road win against the Connecticut Sun. Overall, they’re now 4-1 ATS in their last five away from their own barn.

The total opened between 162.5 and 163.5 and has been trending down since it came on the board. That 163.5 number is still gettable at a couple of sportsbooks at time of writing, but it might not last much longer. Because while the Dream have played in high-scoring games (the Over is 6-2 in their last eight) the Mystics are on an incredible run of Unders.

The Under is now 8-1-1 in Washington’s last 10 games. Of those 10 games, the only time the total has gone Over was in their most recent game against the Liberty — and then only because it went to overtime. That game also featured some of the best combined guard play of Washington’s entire season, including a career game for Ariel Atkins who went 6-7 from downtown. Catching lighting in a bottle twice seems a sight more likely than getting that kind of repeat performance.

The Dream are also one of the fastest-paced teams in the W, but I’m not confident that they can keep that up against Washington. The Mystics have elite transition defense and a commitment to stopping the ball beyond that of any other WNBA squad. They’re a team that all but forfeits the offensive glass in order to ensure proper floor balance on defense. And it works. They allow the second-fewest fast-break points of any W team. Take away those easy points, and all signs point to another Mystics Under.

Dream vs Mystics betting trend to know

Under is 8-1-1 in Mystics’ last 10 overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Dream vs. Mystics.

Dream vs Mystics game info

Dream vs Mystics key injuries

Dream: Aari McDonald G (Out), Iliana Rupert C (Out).
Mystics: Shakira Austin C (Out), Kristi Toliver G (Out), Li Meng G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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