Chicago Sky vs Connecticut Sun Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Thomas Comes Up Clutch in Chicago

The high-flying Connecticut Sun are setting the pace in the Eastern Conference and they’ll look to push their win streak to four games against the slumping Chicago Sky.

The Sun blew past the Minnesota Lynx for an emphatic 89-68 win on Thursday but the mood in Connecticut took a big hit with confirmation that Brionna Jones is out for the rest of the season with an Achilles injury. Meanwhile, a 5-3 start feels like ancient history in Chicago after dropping five straight since, sinking it to the bottom of the East standings — and all its flaws were on display in an 80-59 loss to the Washington Mystics last time out.

With Jones out and a team free falling handed to Connecticut, find out which player I'll be expecting to have a big game in her absence in my free WNBA picks for the Sky vs Sun on June 25.

Sky vs Sun best odds

Sky vs Sun picks and predictions

This isn’t the first time that a devastating injury has hampered Connecticut’s hopes of landing its first WNBA title, but that doesn’t make it any easier for the Sun to absorb Jones’ season-ending ruptured Achilles. Last year’s Sixth Player of the Year was putting up career-best numbers of almost 16 points and eight rebounds a game.

Jones’ absence puts a bigger workload on the shoulders of veteran DeWanna Bonner and do-it-all forward Alyssa Thomas. If the best version of the Sky turns up this afternoon, Connecticut will need big minutes and steady scoring from that duo.

Thomas was already logging heavy minutes even before Jones’ injury — playing all 40 minutes four times this year — and she’s unlikely to get much of a breather this afternoon if the game is close. With her ability to fill up the box score, all of the Thomas odds are worth a look, but I particularly like the points prop.

Without Jones, one of the consequences is at least 10 shots per game up for grabs for the Sun’s other scorers. Thomas isn’t likely to have many nights with 20 or more field goal attempts, but a slight uptick in touches is reasonable. She had a triple-double this week against the Seattle Storm and has posted 16 or more points in three of her last five outings (and would have got there again in midweek but for the blowout scoreline).

The hosts are seemingly catching the Sky at the right time, and I see Thomas having another efficient scoring game. 

My best bet: Alyssa Thomas Over 15.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Sky vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis

The Sun have delivered a bold response to anyone who thought the New York Liberty were going to cruise to the top spot in the East this year. This is a deep, talented Connecticut roster and all the signs point to a comfortable home win this afternoon.

If anything, it’s a little surprising that the line opened as low as 4.5 (it’s now up to 6.0 at most sportsbooks), given that three of the hosts’ last five wins have come by a double-digit margin. The oddsmakers are certainly showing plenty of respect for the visitors — in part perhaps because Chicago is 7-4-2 against the spread record this season.

This still feels like a mismatch, though. The Sun have been firing on all cylinders offensively, putting up 80 or more points in each of their last 10 games. That’s in stark contrast to a Sky offense that’s been wildly erratic this season: Chicago scored 90 points against the Indiana Fever last week (including 36 for impressive guard Marina Mabrey), then served up a 59-point dud at home to the Mystics on Thursday.

In some ways, it’s tough to lean into the Under here with Connecticut making scores in the mid 80s look routine, while leading the league in free-throw attempts per game. But it’s fair to wonder whether the Sky can hold up their end of the deal for an Over just south of 160. The hosts held the Lynx to just 32% shooting on Thursday.

The Under is 7-1 in Chicago’s last eight games after an ATS loss and it’s hit in the visitor's last six games when playing on two days rest. Much depends on Kahleah Copper for the visitors. She was a non-factor against the Mystics earlier in the week, finishing with seven points on 2-for-13 shooting, but had three consecutive games with at least 20 points to start the month.

Sky vs Sun betting trend to know

While the Sky have gone 3-2 against Western Conference opponents this season, they’re 2-6 against their rivals in the East. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sky vs. Sun.

Sky vs Sun game info

Sky vs Sun key injuries

Sky: Rebekah Gardner G (Out), Isabelle Harrison F (Out), Li Yueru F (Out).
Sun: Brionna Jones F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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