Chicago Sky vs New York Liberty Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Kahleah Copper Steals the Show

Though they go down the same in the standings, not all wins are created equal. When the New York Liberty dominated the previously invincible Las Vegas Aces on Sunday, they showed their true potential for the first time this season. 

The question now becomes: will that performance catapult New York to a new level of play going forward or will they continue to falter against inferior competition as they have so many times this season?

The Chicago Sky are in the unenviable position of finding out on Friday, August 11, as the first team to play the Liberty since their thrashing of Las Vegas. The WNBA odds heavily favor the Liberty, but the Sky have been on a scoring streak themselves and will be a good test for a super team that is finally putting it all together.

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Sky vs. Liberty believe Kahleah Copper is being undervalued by oddsmakers today.

Sky vs Liberty best odds

Sky vs Liberty picks and predictions

Don’t look now but if the season ended today, the Chicago Sky would be in the playoffs. That’s pretty incredible given the amount of Hall of Fame talent that went out the door this summer, and even moreso when you consider their head coach and general manager left in the middle of the season.

There’s plenty of credit to go around, including to players like Marina Mabrey and Elizabeth Williams as well as interim head coach Emre Vatansever, but the lion’s share of it has to go to Kahleah Copper. Copper was thrust into the starring role this season after being more of a contributing player in previous iterations of the Sky, and she has truly begun to shine.

Copper’s primary reputation is for the damage she does as a driver, and it’s well-earned. She gets great extension on layups, can use smooth footwork to wrong foot opponents, and is great at attacking before the catch to put defenders in a bind.

Some efficiency slippage is to be expected for a player like her when moving into a primary scorer role. Teams are more keyed in on the scouting report, you take on the opponent's best defenders, and you’re often tossed a grenade on possessions gone wrong. And while that slippage is there in a dip in 2-point shooting from 52.8% to 47.4%, she’s making up for it from behind the arc.

Prior to this season, the most threes Copper had ever hit in a season was 36 across 31 games, while this season she’s already up to 50 due to an increase in volume paired with an outstanding 42.7% rate from behind the arc. 

Copper is still developing her 3-point pull-up game, but she’s an elite catch-and-shoot player who works hard off the ball. Her team has gotten progressively better through the course of the year at finding her, and it also gives her some added utility on offensive possessions where she doesn’t have to dominate the ball.

This diversity in her offensive game should serve her well tonight against the New York Liberty. While the Liberty looked like the greatest defense on earth in their crushing victory over the Las Vegas Aces, they’re anything but on a game-to-game basis. While New York has a pair of bigs in Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones that will cover the paint well, their guard defense is a weak point that Copper will attack relentlessly.

In two previous meetings between Chicago and New York this season, Copper scored 20 and 27 points, including going 7-12 from the perimeter. Copper's line is set at just 19.5 for today's game probably because she’s being pigeonholed as a player who needs a free path to the rim to succeed, but this season she’s proven that’s not really the case.

Copper is averaging 24.5 points over her last 10 games and has only scored fewer than 20 in two of those contests. With the Liberty coming off a long layoff and having vanquished their greatest rival, it’s only natural that they could be a touch complacent going against the 12-16 Sky. Bank on Kahleah to take advantage on Friday.

My best bet: Kahleah Copper Over 19.5 points (-125 at FanDuel)

Sky vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis

After their impressive performance against Las Vegas on Sunday, the early money has already moved this line from Liberty -11.5 to where it sits now at -12.5. New York should be in a strong position to cover at this number, but it’s hard to parse whether they actually will. The Liberty are much more talented, have blossoming chemistry on both ends of the court, and haven’t played since Sunday.

But they have not been spread killers this season, going just 12-16 ATS overall including two ATS losses (and one straight up) to the Sky earlier this season. They’re 1-4 ATS against teams with a losing record, which would suggest a certain lack of focus when it comes to putting teams away. Their 1-5 ATS record in their last six games following an ATS win would seem to confirm it.

The Sky have now played 12 games since the shocking midseason departure of James Wade, and after an understandable transition period, the team has begun to adopt a new offensive identity behind interim head coach Vatansever. That identity has been predicated on getting to the free throw line more, and it’s seen them play at the level of the 4th best offense since the beginning of July. 

The total for Friday’s game opened between 165.5 and 167.5, with that line increasing to a high of 168.5 at some sportsbooks. Chicago’s ongoing offensive transformation has been paying major dividends, including a recent streak where the Sky broke 100 points per game in three straight (the only other team to do so this season is the Aces). Unsurprisingly, the Over has cashed in a string of games for Chicago recently including 4-0 overall, and 5-1 in their last six road games. 

Their new offense is only a part of the puzzle, however, and it’s fair to wonder how they’ll slow down the Liberty. In their most recent game against the Minnesota Lynx, Napheesa Collier tortured the Sky from midrange. The Lynx were also scoring so effectively in the paint that Chicago played a zone defense out of desperation. 

Going zone will not be an option against the Liberty. While New York doesn’t put a ton of pressure on the rim, they have interior scorers that cannot be given any space on the inside and knockdown shooters one pass away at all times. While the Under has cashed in four straight for New York, those have been at much higher numbers than this. The Liberty play a run-and-gun style that will surely be boosted by having been off since Sunday.

Sky vs Liberty betting trend to know

The Liberty are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sky vs. Liberty.

Sky vs Liberty game info

Sky vs Liberty key injuries

Sky: Ruthy Hebard F (Eligible Friday), Rebekah Gardner G (Out), Isabelle Harrison F (Out).
Liberty: Han Xu C (Out), Stefanie Dolson C (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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