Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Hayes, Sun Shine Bright in Minny

The 2023 WNBA season was supposed to be a two-horse race, but someone forgot to tell the Connecticut Sun.

Connecticut has exploded out of the blocks and is running alongside Las Vegas and New York at the top of the WNBA power rankings, tipping off the new season with a 4-1 record heading into a road trip to play the Minnesota Lynx on Thursday.

That said, two of those wins came against lowly Indiana Fever, and their most recent meeting was decided by just three points, with the Sun falling short as 12-point home chalk.

Minnesota is winless through four games but is coming off a stronger showing at Dallas on Tuesday and is back home after playing three straight outings on the road. WNBA odds are giving the home side as many as 7.5 points tonight with Minnesota missing one of its brightest young stars.

I dissect the spread and Over/Under total for this solo WNBA contest and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Sun at Lynx on June 1.

Sun vs Lynx best odds

Sun vs Lynx picks and predictions

I had a down day for WNBA prop betting Tuesday, but my saving grace was Connecticut Sun guard Tiffany Hayes.

Not only did she blow her modest scoring prop of 11.5 points out of the water with a 22-point performance against Indiana, but she also cashed in on her scoring milestone market as well, putting up 15 or more points at +215.

Hayes has emerged as a go-to scoring threat for Sun, posting point totals of 22, 16, and 13 in her last three games.

The 5-foot-10 guard is getting about 30 minutes of floor time during that span and shooting a collective 17-for-32 from the field, including 8-for-15 from 3-point range.

Hayes isn’t just hot from downtown, she’s also done a great job drawing contact and scoring points from the charity stripe as well, hitting nine of her last dozen foul shots.

Her point projections for Thursday’s stop in Minnesota have a ceiling of 21.6 points while more conservative models are calling for at least 15 points. My number is in the middle, forecasting 16.8 points from Hayes.

The Minnesota Lynx lost a big part of their backcourt defense with 6-foot-3 rookie guard Diamond Miller going down with an ankle injury, leaving Minny to fill that gap with 5-foot-10 reserve Rachel Banham.

Miller owns the best defensive rating on the team (97.7) and the third-highest player impact estimate (11.6), according to WNBA.com stats. She would have matched up with Hayes, but now the veteran out of UConn can go after the smaller Banham.

I’m back on Hayes to top her point prop, given the lofty projections and Minnesota’s missing Lynx on defense.

My best bet: Tiffany Hayes Over 13.5 points (-130 at bet365)

Sun vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for this lone WNBA matchup Thursday opened with Connecticut as a 7.5-point road favorite. While that larger line is still available at some shops, this spread has trimmed to -7 and as low as -6.5 as of Thursday morning.

While two of the Sun’s victories came against the rival Washington Mystics, the other two victories were against the Fever. The most recent matchup between those teams was much tighter than oddsmakers expected, with Connecticut holding on for an 81-78 win but coming up short as a 12-point home favorite.

The validity of this Sun squad is in question as it owns a net rating of just +1.3 despite those four victories. Connecticut looked on track to upset the mighty Liberty in New York last weekend but blew a 6-point halftime edge and was outscored 49-27 in the final 20 minutes, losing 81-65 as a 6.5-point road pup.

Minnesota has a goose egg in the win column but is coming off its best showing of the season at Dallas on Tuesday. It kept pace with an explosive Wings offense in a 94-89 loss and just covered as a 5.5-point road underdog. However, that effort came at a cost.

Star rookie Diamond Miller suffered an ankle injury Tuesday that will sideline the No. 2 overall pick for this run-in with the Sun. Miller was averaging 10.4 points, three rebounds and 2.2 assists in her first four games, leaving a big hole in the Lynx backcourt.

My WNBA power ratings are still ironing out the wrinkles, but my projections have this game right around Sun -7 given the Miller injury — pretty much where oddsmakers have it. Connecticut is my No. 3 team in the league but I’m cautious of the quality of its record. Minnesota is ranked 10th for me, just ahead of Seattle and Indiana.

The total for Thursday’s game hit the board as high as 163 points and has since slimmed to 161.5 at some online markets.

The loss of Miller is a ding for this Lynx offense, which was showing life in the past three outings. The team did get guard Kayla McBride back in action on Tuesday after she missed two games due to personal issues.

McBride will likely be joined by 5-foot-10 reserve guard Rachel Banham in the starting lineup, which makes the Lynx much smaller after losing the 6-foot-3 Miller. Minnesota is already struggling defensively, ranked second last in advanced defensive rating (106.6).

The Sun continue to hang their hat on defense and rebounding under new head coach Stephanie White, who took over for former coach Curt Miller. Connecticut has shown some cracks in that defense the past three games, allowing point totals of 81, 81, and 78 and lugging a touting a beefy defensive rating of 105.7 in that span.

In terms of offensive pace, the Sun are tied for the slowest attack in the WNBA (94.8) and that’s trickled down to a 3-2 Over/Under mark through five games. Minnesota is 2-3 O/U on the year and has very much been at the mercy of their foes’ tempo, having played at a much faster pace while facing the likes of Dallas and Las Vegas in the past two contests.

Sun vs Lynx betting trend to know

The Sun are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Lynx.

Sun vs Lynx game info

Sun vs Lynx key injuries

Sun: No key injuries to report.
Lynx: Diamond Miller G (Out), Natalie Achonwa F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Pages related to this topic