Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Mercury Will Fall in Phoenix

After a highly-entertaining All-Star break, WNBA action returns with a two-game slate on Tuesday, July 18. That includes the first matchup of the season between the rising Connecticut Sun and the fading Phoenix Mercury.

The Sun have held up remarkably well this year despite major roster changes, Curt Miller’s departure, and the season-ending injury to Brionna Jones. The Mercury have not met adversity so adeptly, falling to 4-15 as their season continues to unravel. As a result, they're heavy underdogs in the WNBA odds tonight.

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Sun vs. Mercury believe Connecticut’s particular style of defense-to-offense basketball should prove too much for Phoenix.

Sun vs Mercury best odds

Sun vs Mercury picks and predictions

The Connecticut Sun are a machine. They lost 2021 MVP Jonquel Jones this season alongside head coach Curt Miller and didn’t skip a beat. Then they lost Brionna Jones for the season with an Achilles injury, and yet here they sit at 15-5, nipping at the New York Liberty’s heels for the best record in the Eastern Conference. 

The Sun own a +6.5 net rating and are ranked third on both sides of the ball. They’re metronomic in their consistency. And while there’s plenty of credit to go around, none of this is the case without the transcendent play of Alyssa Thomas. 

Everything runs through AT, whether as the primary scorer, facilitator, or screener. Her fingerprints are on every Sun play. A team that can limit her in any significant fashion can beat the Sun, but very few can do so. The Phoenix Mercury are not members of that elite club.

Connecticut has also adapted to the absence of Jones more seamlessly than should be possible. It’s meant sliding DeWanna Bonner up to the four full-time, where while she might not have traditional size, she makes up for it with a combination of grit and elite length. 

There aren’t that many WNBA forwards who can deal with Bonner’s level of movement shooting and her ability to step into a 3-pointer right off a screen. 

With more touches to go around, newcomer Tiffany Hayes has also stepped into a larger offensive role, and her nastiness fits in with AT’s hand-in-glove.

But it’s Connecticut’s style of play more than anything that dooms the Mercury here. The Sun live to rip and run. They’ll force a turnover or secure the defensive board, rim run and fill the lane, and score before the opposition knows what hit them. More than any team in the WNBA, their defense leads to elite transition offense.

That’s in part how the Sun are only narrowly behind the Las Vegas Aces for most points in the paint in the WNBA, scoring just a notch above 40 per game. Due to the greatness of Brittney Griner, defending the paint is one of the things the Mercury do decently well, allowing just 35.4 points per game there, good for fourth in the W. But Griner won’t play a full 40-minute game, and the Mercury routinely get blown off the court in the minutes she sits. Further, Griner can’t defend the paint if the Mercury don’t have time to set up their halfcourt defense.

And they probably won’t. The Sun lead the league in points off opponent turnovers, by a lot, at 20 per game. The Mercury’s Achilles heel (in so far as a team this bad can be said to have one) is coughing the ball up at a league-worst rate of 22%.

The first game back from the All-Star break is the most rested a team will be mid-season, and in theory, should be the best version of them we’ll see this year. The best version of the Sun will run the ball against Phoenix relentlessly. 

The Sun are coming off three straight spread victories, and they’re also an elite road team, going 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games away from home. Even at this increased price, I like Connecticut to cover on Tuesday.

My best bet: Sun -7.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

Sun vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis

The Sun opened as -5.5-point road favorites against the Mercury, but that line quickly grew to as high as -8.5 at some sportsbooks. 

While the Mercury have shown a lot more fight under interim head coach Nikki Blue, they’re still outclassed by any legitimately good team. That’s translated to Phoenix going 1-7 against the spread over their last eight games against teams with a winning record. 

The Sun, meanwhile, prove their quality by smashing inferior competition, going 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing record.

The Sun are a solid road team, and the Mercury are a relatively miserable home one. Phoenix is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games, compared to the Sun’s 5-2 ATS record in their last seven overall.

The total for Tuesday’s contest opened between 163 and 161.5 depending on the sportsbook, and now has settled in at 162.5 almost everywhere. Still, it’s worth price shopping because while the total might be near universal for today’s game, the vig still varies significantly. For a team with such strong defensive bonafides, it’s a bit surprising that the Over has cashed in five of the Sun’s last six games. 

I’m not bullish on that continuing. The Sun smother poor offensive teams like Phoenix, and their own offense is not typically enough to make up for it. The Under is 5-1 in Connecticut’s last six games against teams with a losing record for this reason. In complementary fashion, the Under has gone 4-1 in Phoenix’s last five games against winning teams. 

The Mercury also play at a glacial 94.84 pace, with the Sun also in the bottom half in the W in terms of possessions per game.

Sun vs Mercury betting trend to know

The Mercury are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Mercury.

Sun vs Mercury game info

Sun vs Mercury key injuries

Sun: Brionna Jones F (Out)
Mercury: Skylar Diggins-Smith G (Out)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Pages related to this topic