Connecticut Sun vs Seattle Storm Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Loyd Shoulders the Load

The 9-3 Connecticut Sun are rolling to start the WNBA season, hoping to play spoiler to the new super team era the league has embarked on this year. Their opponent on Tuesday, June 20 is the Seattle Storm, a team laden with youth that is still finding their way.

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Sun vs. Storm believe Jewell Loyd is going to turn in another strong offensive performance despite the Sun’s strong interior defense.

Sun vs Storm best odds

Sun vs Storm picks and predictions

The lone woman left standing after the Seattle Storm star trio break up this offseason, Jewell Loyd is having a remarkable start to her eighth WNBA season. Loyd is carrying an almost unprecedented offensive load this year, jumping from third ball handler behind Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart to one of the most ball-dominant players the league has ever seen.

In her new role as the Storm’s go-to player, Loyd is leading the league in scoring at 25.4 points per game, as well as usage rate at 31.9%. The latter is the highest such mark since Angel McCoughtry in 2015. Loyd has managed to marry her gigantic jump in usage with a slight uptick in efficiency over her previous two seasons, and she’s up to a scorching 40% from downtown on 8.3 attempts per game.

Seattle is an iso-team, with one of the lower assist percentages (59%) among W squads. That's because their offense starts, stops, and everything in between with Jewell. That’s resulted in a poor overall offensive rating overall, but it might be a lot worse if not for Loyd’s heroics. The Storm are +29.4 points better per 100 possessions with Loyd on the court vs off.

Loyd is coming off a career high 39 points in a barnburner against the Dallas Wings, and I’m expecting her to keep it rolling against the Connecticut Sun on Tuesday. Beyond Loyd’s overall development and skill, two things make me bullish on this particular line: rest and opposition.

What’s notable about Loyd’s scoring outbursts this season is how much time off has been a factor. Her low scoring games have all come on quick turnarounds, playing with a single day off, and usually with time spent traveling rather than recuperating. Loyd and the Storm have not played since Saturday. Her iso-heavy style and usage rate is immensely taxing, so having two full days off should allow her to play her style in its strongest form.

The second reason is the way her style of play impacts her competition. Loyd’s percentage of self-created shots has taken a massive leap this year, up from just around 18% of her threes last season to nearly 37% of them this year. The Sun have a fantastic team defense, but team defenses matter less when you work out of isolation because you don’t allow extra defenders into the possession. 

Instead, you become only as strong as your weakest link on the chain. The Sun has competent perimeter defenders but not superlative ones, and then terrors in the interior in the form of Alyssa Thomas and Brionna Jones. Their impact on Loyd should be muted though. 

Loyd rarely attacks the rim, instead preferring to shoot the long ball, or if attacking a hard close out, pulling up inside 16 feet. Loyd can mostly avoid the Sun’s best defenders because she’s comfortable taking several pull up threes per game. In order to beat the Storm team offense overall, the Sun will simply live with that. As good as Loyd has been, the Storm’s overall offensive rating is still the worst in the WNBA.

Then it’s a matter of whether Loyd can beat her cover on the perimeter. Natisha Hiedeman is a fine defender, but not one who will trouble Loyd if the latter decides to press the issue. And this season it appears she’s decided to press the issue every single game. 

My best bet: Jewell Loyd Over 25.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)

Sun vs Storm spread and Over/Under analysis

The Sun opened as 7.5-point favorites in the WNBA odds on Tuesday morning, a line that has moved to -8.5 at time of writing, with the potential to move further before tipoff. That’s a sizeable line against any home team, but the difference in quality between these two teams is stark. 

Only the walking tire fire that is the Phoenix Mercury rate lower than the Storm’s -10 net rating this season, while the Sun have the third-best net rating at 4.3. The Sun’s style of play also seems to spell trouble for the Storm.

The Storm allow 39 points per game in the paint, narrowly behind the rebuilding Chicago Sky for the worst mark in the W. The Sun are the exact team that should make them pay for their soft interior defense, and while Ezi Magbegor does a solid job at center, the Storm don’t have a second player of her caliber to hang with the likes of Thomas on the block. 

But the Storm have been one of the surprise teams against the spread this season. Their ATS record is 6-3-1 this year, the second-best in the WNBA. Connecticut has been middling ATS, and poor against weaker competition. They’re 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record.

The total sits anywhere from 159 to 160, so it’s well worth price hunting if you decide you want to bet the Over or Under. The Storm and Sun are both in the top half of the league in pace, with Seattle making a concerted effort to scrape together early offense to avoid the slog that has been their halfcourt execution. The Sun are a defense-to-offense team, and a young squad like the Storm could prove vulnerable to their overall defensive pressure.

For their part, the Sun allow the fewest fast break points of any team, but somehow are also the third-best offensive rebounding team by percentage (31.5%) in the league. Normally one has to sacrifice one or other, but the Sun’s unique size allows them to crash and defend their own paint in transition without compromise. That solid transition defense contributes to the third-best defensive rating in the WNBA at just 97. Still, their offense is not to be underestimated, and the Over has gone 4-1 in Connecticut’s last four games.

Sun vs Storm betting trend to know

The Sun are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Storm.

Sun vs Storm game info

Sun vs Storm key injuries

Sun: None.
Storm: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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