Dallas Wings vs Los Angeles Sparks Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Don't Expect a Repeat From Last Week

The Dallas Wings ended a three-game skid with an emphatic win over the Atlanta Dream on Tuesday and will now look to avenge their worst loss of the season against their Western Conference rivals, the Los Angeles Sparks, on Friday, June 23.

The Wings and the Sparks are both talented but flawed teams, with ceilings higher than their record through the first quarter of the season might suggest. Will either of them figure it out, or will they both finish the season as less than the sum of their parts?

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Wings vs. Sparks believe Dallas is better than it''s shown so far and should come away with a victory.

Wings vs Sparks best odds

Wings vs Sparks picks and predictions

The WNBA season is a grind. Not only do the games come rapidly, but the teams fly commercial and the added fatigue of travel can see losing streaks quickly derail a season. So while the Dallas Wings certainly were struggling during their recent three-game skid, it would be foolish to judge them by their lowest moment.

Case in point, they rallied to crush the Atlanta Dream to end their losing streak on Tuesday, and now have a chance to avenge perhaps the worst loss of their season as they face off against the Los Angeles Sparks tonight. The Wings and Sparks played just over a week ago with L.A. winning in a walk, 79-61. I’m betting against a repeat performance.

Last Wednesday’s game was a case of “whatever can go wrong, will go wrong” for the Wings. They simply could not hit a shot, shooting just 19% from three and 36% overall. Misfiring at that level infects the rest of your play. 

It’s hard to set your defense when an opponent gets to rebound and run on nearly two-thirds of all their possessions. It’s no coincidence that Dallas also committed a season-high 18 turnovers that game. The Wings are too good of an offense to expect that to happen again, so I’m more or less throwing out that result and weighing this matchup on its own merits.

On paper, the Wings should be a formidable test for the Sparks. This is a classic offense vs. defense game, with a Top-4 offense in the Wings going against a Top-4 defense in the Sparks. But the Wings should have the advantage at both ends against L.A.

The Wings are a low assist percentage, and thus low turnover team. All three of Satou Sabally, Arike Ogunbowale, and Natasha Howard are comfortable with the ball, and Sabally and Ogunbowale can create shots out of basically thin air. The Sparks have solid interior defenders, but nobody who can really contain Ogunbowale on the perimeter. When she’s drawing two and making a play, the Wings offense really begins to hum.

Dallas is also the top rebounding team in the W, while the Sparks rank in the Bottom 3. By not turning it over and getting those extra possessions, the math begins to tilt in the Wings' favor. 

Then there’s the matter of shooting variance. Sparks opponents are shooting 5% worse from behind the arc than Wings opponents this season. At the professional level, team defenses do very little to influence opponent 3-point accuracy. On a game-to-game basis, it’s a noisy stat that isn’t indicative of a long-term trend. The Sparks have benefited enormously from opponent shooting luck compared to the Wings. With that in mind, Dallas isn't so much worse defensively than Los Angeles, even if the results haven’t shown on the scoreboard just yet. 

Then there’s the way the Sparks want to score. Nearly half (47.7%) of all the Sparks' points come in the paint, the highest mark in the WNBA. The Wings are one of the better paint defenses in the W, allowing the third-fewest opponent points in the paint per game.

Something has to give. The Sparks dominate inside, while the Wings have been throttling teams on the interior. The Sparks are a bit different than some other dominant paint teams in that they don’t have a traditional scoring center. Instead, they have a trio of strong interior scorers like Nneka and Chiney Ogwumike as well as Dearica Hamby, who are more skilled than brawny. 

The Wings are much the same with the likes of Sabally and Howard: not the biggest team, but smart, skilled, and quick on their feet. That shared preference for dexterity and speed over strength strikes me as likely to neutralize a lot of the Sparks' preferred avenues on offense. At this point in their careers, I also believe Sabally is the best player of that bunch. 

With the teams drawing close to even on the inside, Dallas’ advantage over the Sparks' diminished backcourt should prove decisive, getting them to win on Friday at plus money feels like a no-brainer value bet.

My best bet: Wings moneyline (+106 at FanDuel)

Wings vs Sparks spread and Over/Under analysis

The Sparks opened between -1 and -1.5 point favorites, which given that they’re at home for Friday’s game, bookmakers are essentially calling this a pick ‘em. Obviously, I think that's off the mark, but it’s understandable given the walloping the Sparks gave the Wings in their last meeting. For the reasons discussed in my best bet, I don’t think it likely that the Wings offense falls apart as it did last Wednesday. Dallas has struggled against the spread, particularly in this recent skid, and against fellow Western Conference opponents. They’re just 1-5 ATS in their last five against teams in the West. 

But the Wings' top trio is more talented and a more balanced fit on offense than what the Sparks have to offer. Even if L.A. might have more depth, that depth has been damaged by a succession of critical backcourt injuries. And the Sparks have been even worse against the spread recently, going just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

The total for Friday’s matchup between the Wings and the Sparks opened between 164.5 and 165.5, with WNBA odds expecting the high pace to translate to a high-scoring contest. That’s entirely plausible, as Dallas leads the WNBA in pace and the Sparks and Wings are ranked first and second in opponent fast break points, respectively.

I expect this to be an up-and-down game with a ton of possessions and easy scoring opportunities. Still, this line is on the high side, with the teams combining for just 140 points in their last matchup. Including that game, the Under has now cashed in four straight Sparks contests.

Wings vs Sparks betting trend to know

The Sparks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Wings vs. Sparks.

Wings vs Sparks game info

Wings vs Sparks key injuries

Wings: Diamond DeShields G (Out), Lou Lopez Senechal G (Out).
Sparks: Lexie Brown G (Questionable), Nia Clouden G (Questionable), Layshia Clarendon G (Out), Katie Lou Samuelson F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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