The Los Angeles Sparks seem to have the Dallas Wings’ number this WNBA season.
Los Angeles has won only two games in its last six outings, and both have come courtesy of Dallas, which is in a freefall after a strong start to the schedule.
The Wings have been clipped, with the team going just 1-4 straight up and against the spread in its last five contests after looking like a sleeper contender in the West. Despite that downward spiral, Dallas is a short road favorite in L.A. today.
I dissect the point spread and Over/Under total for the third meeting between these franchises and give my best WNBA picks for the Wings vs. Sparks on June 25.
Wings vs Sparks best odds
Wings vs Sparks picks and predictions
Los Angeles Sparks head coach Curt Miller has to be careful not to throw any gas on the fire that is the Dallas Wings’ explosive offense.
Through two meetings this season, L.A. has done a great job turning down the tempo of one of the fastest teams in the WNBA. Miller’s methodical approach has stuck the Wings in sand, with a pace rating of 96.0 in their two matchups — a steep drop from Dallas’ season-long rating of 100.34.
The Sparks have to be especially careful not to get sucked into a track meet with the Wings considering the injuries to their backcourt. Los Angeles just doesn’t have the bodies to run, with guards Lexie Brown, Layshia Clarendon, and Nia Clouden out of action.
Today’s game total is sitting as high as 161 points at some shops, with the L.A. team total parked at 79.5 points. That’s an ambitious number considering the Sparks haven’t topped 79 points in their last five games and have stayed below 80 points in all but one of their last eight contests.
This offense has desperately missed Brown’s scoring in the backcourt, as Los Angeles’ offensive rating has plummeted to 89.3 the past four games (second lowest in the league in that span) compared to a rating of 100.1 with her in the lineup.
When it comes to the Wings, Dallas has done a lot to help this L.A. offense look better than it is. It's handed over 22 points off turnovers in both of their meetings this season (38 total turnovers in those games). The Wings usually do a good job limiting those mistakes (14 per game) and will be very careful with the ball following Friday’s embarrassing collapse.
Neither team shot the ball well in Friday’s game, with Los Angeles making only 35% of its looks from the floor, including a 2-for-18 mark from beyond the 3-point arc. If not for the points off turnovers, 22 of 25 free throws and a surprise 18 points from reserve guard Destanni Henderson, L.A. wouldn’t have been able to rally and would have scored well below 76 points.
My best bet: Sparks team total Under 79.5 (-108 at Pinnacle)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Best WNBA bonuses
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the WNBA, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best promo codes for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Wings vs Sparks spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread opened as low as Dallas -1 and immediately drew action on the Wings. Other operators opened between Wings -1.5 and -2, and it was driven to as high as -3 before buyback on the Sparks trimmed it to Dallas -2.5 at most books as of 10 a.m. ET Sunday morning.
My WNBA power ratings produced an unadjusted spread of Los Angeles -1, but the Sparks are still down notable bodies in the backcourt, with Brown, Clarendon, and Clouden all sidelined again.
Dallas will be playing its third game with starting center Teaira McCowan back inside after she was away for the bulk of the season due to international play. McCown has posted 15 points and 19 rebounds in her first two outings back with the Wings.
One of those contests was Friday’s crushing 76-74 loss inside Crypto.com Arena in which Dallas blew a 17-point cushion over L.A., giving up the lead for the first time with less than three minutes remaining in the fourth quarter.
It was the Wings’ second loss to the Sparks this month. Dallas fell 79-61 as a 5.5-point home favorite on June 14. That was one of the worst showings for this potent Wings offense, shooting just 36% from the field and giving up 22 points off 18 turnovers.
Los Angeles has leaned into its defense under new head coach Curt Miller, ranked No. 4 in defensive rating heading into the weekend. The Sparks are allowing only 76.6 points per home stand on the season and have checked Dallas to Under 43% shooting — including a 25% clip from beyond the arc — in their two matchups.
This total hit the board at 160.5 points, dipped briefly to as low as 158.5, but has since come back up to the original number as of late Sunday morning.
The first two games between the Wings and Sparks played well Under closing totals of 169.5 and 163, with those contests producing a collective pace rating of 96.0. That’s a much slower tempo than Dallas would like to play (100.34 pace rating) but fits the more methodical game plan for Miller’s team.
Los Angeles has forced the Wings to slow down and play more halfcourt offense, rather than get the defense on its heels in transition. The Sparks do a good job taking care of the ball while the Wings have coughed it up a combined 38 times in those last two games with L.A., gift-wrapping 44 points off turnovers.
Wings vs Sparks betting trend to know
The L.A. Sparks have gone Under the total in five straight home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Wings vs. Sparks.
Wings vs Sparks game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, June 25, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Wings vs Sparks key injuries
Wings: Diamond DeShields F (Out), Lou Lopez Senechal G (Out).
Sparks: Lexie Brown G (Out), Layshia Clarendon G (Out), Nia Clouden G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
