Two teams desperate to get into the win column collide tonight in Sin City, as the Atlanta Dream visit the Las Vegas Aces.
In spite of a recent funk for the 2-time defending champions, Vegas is still pegged as a 10.5-point home favorite, but my Dream vs Aces predictions think the Dream will be more desperate.
See why I’m backing the underdogs with Friday’s WNBA picks.
Dream vs Aces predictions
My best bet
Dream +10.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
My analysis
It’s not situation critical yet for the Atlanta Dream, who are still just a game back of the Chicago Sky for the eighth and final playoff spot in the league.
The Dream haven’t been that bad of late, with all three losses on their current skid coming by five points or less. But their defense, which had allowed just 71.3 points per game across three post-Olympic wins, has ballooned to 80 points in the last three.
Considering Atlanta is the lowest-scoring team in the W at 76.1 points per game, it isn’t able to overcome any defensive struggles. Fortunately, the Dream are catching a Las Vegas Aces team that isn’t at its best, with just two wins in its last seven contests.
The Aces’ last game was a loss in Dallas to the lowly Stars, a 93-90 decision that wasted a 42-point blowout from WNBA MVP odds shoo-in A’ja Wilson.
Scoring isn’t the problem for Vegas: It leads the league in points per game, pouring in 87 per contest. But it’s bleeding points on the defensive end. Of their five recent losses, the Aces have allowed at least 93 points in three, and an average of 90 points per game.
Vegas has dominated the head-to-head, winning eight of the last 10. However, Atlanta has been the betting darling, going 7-3-0 against the spread in those contests.
The Aces are still playing for something, just a game back of Seattle for fourth in the standings and a homecourt advantage in Round 1 of the playoffs.
But the stakes are higher for the Dream, who are staying in range in most contests. Since the break, they’re 4-1-1 ATS, and they’ve been worth a wager on the road, going 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight away games.
Dream vs Aces same-game parlay (SGP)
Dream +10.5
A’ja Wilson Over 27.5 points
Allisha Gray Over 2.5 made threes
Wilson’s 42-point outburst was a season-best, and one of the few times she’s gone supernova since the Olympic break.
She’s topped her 27.5-point total twice over the last six games. That being said, Wilson is still averaging 26.5 points on 61.5% shooting. She’s also been a wrecking ball against Atlanta, going Over the scoring line in both games.
Shot volume has been the difference, as Wilson’s taken better than 23 field goal attempts in both games vs Atlanta, a number she’s surpassed once in the last six.
Allisha Gray has been dialed in of late from distance, knocking down at least three triples in three of her last four games, missing a fourth by just another bucket.
She’s shooting 44% from downtown during this stretch, a bump up from her 35.6% hit rate on the season. Gray also drilled a season-best 6-for-7 against Vegas in the first matchup.
The Aces have the second-worst 3-point field goal defense in the league, with teams connecting on 36.3% of their attempts. I like Gray to take advantage Friday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dream vs Aces odds
Dream vs Aces live odds
Get the latest Dream vs Aces WNBA odds for tonight.
Dream vs Aces opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta +10.5 (-112) | Las Vegas -10.5 (-108)
- Moneyline: Atlanta +470 | Las Vegas -700
- Over/Under: Over 165.5 (-110) | Under 165.5 (-110)
Dream vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis
- Atlanta is 4-10 on the road this season.
- Vegas is 0-9-0 against the spread in its last nine games.
- The Under has cashed in four of the last five meetings.
- The Aces have a 7-3-0 Under record in their last 10.
Dream vs Aces trend
Atlanta is 6-2-2 ATS in its last 10 games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Dream vs. Aces.
Dream vs Aces game info
| Location: | Michelob Ultra Arena, Paradise, NV |
| Date: | Friday, 8-30-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ION |
Dream vs Aces latest injuries
Dream: Cheyenne Parker-Tyus F (Out); Aerial Powers G (Out).
Aces: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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