Heading into the final game of their regular season, the New York Liberty have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the East while a win for the Atlanta Dream can help them reach the postseason.
Regardless of the result, Rhyne Howard will be the Atlanta offense's — and our Dream vs. Liberty predictions' — focal point.
Read on for my full WNBA picks on Thursday, September 19.
Dream vs Liberty predictions
My best bet
Rhyne Howard Over 15.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
On a normal night, this would be the perfect matchup to back a Breanna Stewart or Sabrina Ionescu Over. However, the New York Liberty have nothing to play for and we’ve seen them rest their top players before.
Stewart sat out two games before the Olympics break, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her or Ionescu play fewer minutes than normal tonight.
That would open the door for the Atlanta Dream to have a big outing, especially with them riding a two-game winning streak and playing for a playoff spot.
Atlanta holds a one-game lead over the Washington Mystics and Chicago Sky for the No. 8 seed and a loss would likely eliminate the Dream from playoff contention.
To pull off the win, Rhyne Howard will need to be the version of herself we saw in early September when she had three straight games of 31+ points.
At her best, Howard is one of the top players in the WNBA and the former No. 1 overall pick is averaging a career-best 17.4 points per game this season.
While she was somewhat sporadic from game to game earlier this season — she was also out for an extended period with an ankle injury — she’s been far more consistent since returning from the break.
In 15 games, Howard is averaging 19.4 points and has scored 16+ in eight games.
As Atlanta's highest-usage player, and with the season on the line, expect Howard to turn in a strong performance in the regular-season finale.
Dream vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)
Rhyne Howard Over 15.5 points
Sabrina Ionescu Under 26.5 pts+reb+ast
Breanna Stewart Under 8.5 rebounds
Even if the Liberty hadn’t sealed the No. 1 seed, it would be worth betting the Under on this line for Ionescu. For as dominant as she’s been this season, her production has dipped in September.
She’s averaging just 13.8 points per game - she hasn’t averaged fewer than 17.4 in any other month this season.
Putting up a combined 25.8 points, rebounds, and assists in her last six games, it’s hard to imagine Ionescu going for 27+ if she’s playing fewer minutes than normal.
It’s similar circumstances for Stewart, who is usually right around this 8.5-rebound number when the final buzzer goes.
She’s averaging 8.7 this season, but has gone Under 8.5 in nine of 14 games since returning from the Olympic break.
Now factor in that she’s unlikely to play her usual 30+ minutes per game and that the Dream are third in the WNBA in rebounds per game thanks to Tina Charles.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dream vs Liberty odds
Dream vs Liberty live odds
Get the latest Dream vs Liberty WNBA odds for tonight.
Dream vs Liberty opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta +3.5 (-110) | New York -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Atlanta +140 | New York -165
- Over/Under: Over 160.5 (-110) | Under 160.5 (-110)
Dream vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis
- Given New York’s dominance, it opened as a 4.5-point home favorite, but that line has shifted to just -1.5 with the No. 1 seed locked up.
- The Liberty are just 20-19 ATS this season while the Dream are 20-17-2.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 161 but has since come down to 158.5.
- New York is 18-21 betting the Over this season and Atlanta is 16-22-1.
Dream vs Liberty trend
The Dream are 10-2-2 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Dream vs. Liberty.
Dream vs Liberty game info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-19-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
Dream vs Liberty latest injuries
Dream: Aerial Powers G (Out), Cheyenne Parker-Tyus F (Out).
Liberty: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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