The Chicago Sky continue to keep pace with the WNBA’s best after a so-so start to the season, while the Atlanta Dream playing at a .500 level is a success in its own regard, compared to last year’s dreadful 8-24 showing.
Clearly, there remains a gap between the two, if one is playing among the league’s best and the other is losing as often as it is winning. In other words, a healthy Chicago should be the nearly double-digits favorite that it is leading into tonight.
Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Dream at the Sky on Friday, June 17, with tip-off set for 8:00 ET.
Dream vs Sky odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Dream vs Sky predictions
Predictions made on 6/17/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Dream vs Sky info
• Location: Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL
• Date: Friday, June 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Marquee Sports Network-Chicago, Bally Sports South
Dream vs Sky betting preview
Key injuries
Dream: Tiffany Hayes G (Out), Erica Wheeler G (Out), Kia Vaughn C (Out), Nia Coffey F (Questionable).
Sky: Candace Parker F (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Sky are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite. Find more WNBA betting trends for Dream vs. Sky.
Dream vs Sky picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Proper betting form has long been to “Buy on bad news, sell on good,” so the Friday news casting doubt on Candace Parker’s availability should lead to a Chicago investment.
Typically speaking, the betting public will overreact to such a high-profile star’s absence, and that will move the line too far in one direction. But in reality, the WNBA hasn't attracted that much of the betting public’s action yet for it to be a major factor when handicapping.
Secondly, when the line does not move much, then one of two dynamics is in action. Either the bookmakers knew about the impending news long before it was announced — and given this is Parker’s first missed game this season, that seems unlikely — or the absence is not being given proper due.
Parker averages 12.4 points and 7.9 rebounds, adding a mere 4.5 assists. Losing her cannot be overstated. Yet, that line moved just a point initially. In fact, some slow books did not move it at all.
The Sky have no backup to Parker that is anywhere near her level. Betting on Atlanta here is an exception that proves the usual rule of buying on bad news.
Prediction: Dream +8.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
The total steaming up, even after Parker’s questionable status was announced, suggests another miscalculation by the books.
Parker is a defensive force, averaging nearly two stocks per game, thus obviously boosting the Dream’s scoring chances if she is indeed out tonight. Offensively, Parker’s 10.3 field-goal attempts per game will not go untaken. Instead, they will be reappropriated, most likely to forward Emma Meesseman.
The veteran has been heating up of late, scoring 20 on Sunday and 26 a week ago, making more than 70 percent of her shots in both games. Two weeks ago, she went 6-of-10 from the field for 16 points against Atlanta.
Increase those looks by a few of Parker’s usual and suddenly Meesseman could ruin the Dream’s weekend once again while efficiently boosting the final tally.
Prediction: Over 157.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Best bet
Chicago has struggled when they're not at full strength. That was a small sample size and many weeks ago, but when the Sky still lacked Kahleah Copper as she wrapped up her international season, it opened the season only 2-2.
Losing to Los Angeles in the season opener stands out, considering the Sparks have limped along at 4-8 since. The rotation is not particularly deep, leaning on six players far more than the rest. Without arguably the best player on the team, that could be exposed.
This spread has not adjusted enough for those realities. This is not the nightmare of a Dream from 2021 — and no, there will be no apology for that pun.
At the absolute least, Atlanta's newfound competence should be enough to make the Sky sweat without Parker.
Pick: Dream +8.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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