After a head-scratching loss to the Atlanta Dream, the Las Vegas Aces are set up for a get-right game against the struggling Indiana Fever tonight.
While the disparity between these teams might not make for an overly competitive contest, there’s still plenty of value to be had with today’s three best WNBA player prop bets.
Our free WNBA picks and predictions for Fever vs. Aces has Kelsey Mitchell pegged for a big game and likes a couple of Aces stars to fall short of their usual production.
Fever vs. Aces props for July 21
Picks made on 7/21/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best Fever vs. Aces props
The links below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Wilson gets quick hook
While some slow starters transformed after midseason renaissances, the 5-23 Indiana Fever are slipping deeper and deeper into the league's cellar. They have both the WNBA's worst offense and defense, and the spread for this game has been hovering around a -17.5-point advantage for the Aces. In other words, the books are predicting a massive blowout in this one, which should end the competitive portion of the game early.
2??2?? going to work.@_ajawilson22 // #ALLIN pic.twitter.com/YQcjjN95N5
— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) July 20, 2022
So that’s why, despite having an overwhelming advantage on the interior, I love the Under for A’ja here on the boards. Becky Hammon has sat Wilson aggressively when she can as A’ja otherwise carries a massive scoring and rebounding load for Las Vegas.
In their last three blowouts against the Liberty, Lynx, and Sparks, she’s averaging just over 20 minutes per game and only 5.6 boards. And though these teams are vastly different in quality, their team rebound percentage is comparable (Aces rank seventh, Fever just behind in eighth), making a plus money bet here excellent value.
I’m betting this one is over midway through the second quarter and that A’ja gets a quick hook.
Pick: A’ja Wilson Under 9.5 rebounds (+110 bet365)
Plum limited from outside
The same logic and game context applies to Kelsey Plum as it does to Wilson. The Aces have their gaze firmly fixed upon the rapidly approaching playoffs and will be looking to maximize rest. In those same three blowouts against the Liberty, Lynx, and Sparks, Plum eclipsed 20 points just once, and there’s good reason to think she’ll fall short here again even assuming the Aces dominate.
Plum triple ????@kelseyplum10 // #ALLIN pic.twitter.com/yRUmO2dRFp
— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) July 20, 2022
Despite the growing prominence of 3-point shooting, most of the best defensive teams still prioritize defending the paint. While the Fever don’t have much of a functional defense, they have at least made a concerted effort to not allow opposing teams to take threes. They allow just 20.8 3-point attempts per game, 3rd fewest in the “W” and just a notch below the Chicago Sky, who are a stellar defensive group.
At 7.7 attempts per game, more than half of all Plum’s shot attempts this season have been from deep, making that one defensive principle the thing most likely to impact Plum’s scoring, even as Las Vegas parades to the rim.
With Plum looking at a short night and more difficulty getting her shot off than usual, I like the Under.
Pick: Kelsey Plum Under 20.5 points (-115 bet365)
Mitchell money from deep
Kelsey Mitchell is the Indiana Fever's offensive fulcrum and their leading scorer at 18.3 points per game. Given the dearth of surrounding offensive talent, her efficiency as a shooter is impressive, as she’s knocking in 40.9% of her threes on 5.7 attempts per game, most coming above the break and a significant portion unassisted.
That makes her Over here pretty appealing, as the Aces defense is the antithesis of Indiana's and geared towards allowing opponents to fire away from deep so they can sell out and defend the paint.
just K3ls3y Mitch3ll things pic.twitter.com/htNyna69Ba
— Indiana Fever ???????? (@IndianaFever) July 17, 2022
At 26.5 attempts per game, the Aces lead the WNBA in opponent 3-point attempts per game. Aces’ opponents shooting 36.4% from beyond the arc puts them in company with other teams with porous perimeter defense like the Mercury, Sparks, and the Liberty.
The Aces outclass the Fever in just about every department, but there’s real value on the Mitchell Over.
Pick: Kelsey Mitchell Over 18.5 points (-115 bet365)
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