Fever vs Liberty Picks and Predictions: Grab the Cowbell

The last time the Indiana Fever and New York Liberty clashed, the teams needed overtime to settle it on the scoreboard. But a lot has changed since that 92-86 OT win for the Fever on May 13. 

Indiana fired head coach Marianne Stanley on May 25 and split its first two games under Carlos Knox, going 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS since that victory over the Liberty. New York has lost seven in a row (1-6 ATS) in part to a rash of injuries, including a knee ailment sidelining leading scorer Betnijah Laney.

Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for Fever at Liberty on June 1.

Fever vs Liberty odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Fever vs Liberty predictions

• Prediction: Fever +3.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 164 (-110)
• Best bet: Fever 1H ML (+130)

Predictions made on 6/1/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Fever vs Liberty info

• Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
• Date: Wednesday, June 1, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS Sports Network

Fever vs Liberty betting preview

Key injuries

Fever: Bria Hartley G (Out).
Liberty: Betnijah Laney G (Out), DiDi Richards G (Out), Jocelyn Willoughby F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Liberty are 18-37-3 ATS in their last 58 home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Fever vs. Liberty.

Fever vs Liberty picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The move to fire Stanley may have stirred something in the young Fever. Indiana won its first game under Knox with a 101-96 home victory over Los Angeles on Friday. and despite the 87-75 final score in a loss to Washington last night, the Fever were up 46-38 at the half before getting outscored by 20 points in the final two quarters.

Third-quarter woes continue to be the Fever’s biggest blemish, shooting a league-low 35.5% when coming out of the break for an average of only 18.5 3Q points per game. Indiana went 5-for-20 in the third frame for only 13 points in Tuesday’s loss to the Mystics but get an automatic shot at correcting those troubles with this tight turnaround to New York tonight.

The Liberty aren’t great in third quarters either. In fact, they haven’t been great at any point in the game during this seven-game skid. New York owns a net advanced rating of -20.4 during this stretch with a pop-gun offense as its glaring flaw. 

The Liberty have scored less than 69 points per contest while shooting just 38% from the field. Turnovers have slowed any offensive progress, with the team coughing up the ball almost 20 times per contest during this slide, handing over 21.6 points against off those turnovers.

Those easy looks could be just what this young Indiana team needs to build on its improved scoring efforts. The Fever have watched their offensive rating spike from 94.8 to 107.3 over the past three games, fueled by the play of Eastern Conference Player of the Week Kelsey Mitchell, who poured in 26 points in the loss to Washington and is averaging more than 24 points during the past three outings.

Indiana was able to get some valuable practice time in between the L.A. and Washington games, which is vital to such a young team with a new head coach. The team has arguably played its best game and a half of basketball in that stretch and can keep that momentum going against a struggling N.Y. squad that hasn't won a game since the season opener on May 7.

Prediction: Fever +3.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

Over/Under analysis

Back-to-back games and travel in between is a tough task for the Fever, especially with the team’s defensive downfalls on the road. Indiana owns an away defensive rating of 103.5 and has allowed the host team to score 89.8 points per game — third-most in the WNBA.

The Liberty are struggling to put up points but play inside the Barclays Center for the first time in four games Wednesday. New York managed just 61 and 67 points in regulation in the two matchups at Seattle and post a mere 65 points per road game, but show some life in Brooklyn, where they score nearly 76 points over their four home stands in 2022.

As for the Fever’s scoring approach, on top of those improved offensive outputs the past three contests, the team runs the second-fastest tempo in the league, with a pace rating of 99.29. And when splitting the home/away metrics, the Liberty pump up the pace in front of the Big Apple crowds, owning a rating of 98.62 (second-fastest at home) inside the Barclays Center.

Indiana was on a 6-0-1 Over/Under run before Tuesday’s second-half power outage versus Washington left the final score just shy of the 164.5-point total. New York is 3-1 O/U in its last four outings.

Prediction: Over 164 (-110 at PointsBet)

Best bet

As mentioned, coming out of the halftime break strong has been a big problem for the Fever this season. The team boasts a first-half net rating of -4.6 on the year (7th) and that advanced metric plummets to -13.6 in the second half (12th). 

Indiana has drastically improved on that first-half rating in recent showings, rocking a 1H net rating of +21.1 over the past three games, but still can’t shake those stinky second halves, with a 2H rating of -25.3 in that span.

Knox’s team will be eager to get back on the court after last night’s collapse to the Mystics, especially after such a strong opening 20 minutes. However, the slog of the compressed schedule with back-to-back outings and travel in between could compound Indiana’s inability to finish the fight in New York tonight.

We’ll avoid the full game lines and focus on the Fever’s strength in the first two quarters versus a Liberty team with a WNBA-worst 1H net rating of -21.5.

Pick: Fever first half moneyline (+130 at DraftKings)

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