Fever vs Liberty Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Stewie's Talent Too Much for Indy

The New York Liberty and Indiana Fever are about as different a pair of teams you’ll find in the WNBA, with the Fever rebuilding around No. 1 overall pick Aliyah Boston, while the Liberty are a super team assembled with the express mission of winning a championship this season.

What they have in common is that they’re in the process of figuring out how to reorient themselves around incoming talent, and both will be hoping to bounce back from opening night losses on Sunday.

Our WNBA free betting picks for Fever vs. Liberty are banking on a bounceback game from Breanna Stewart.

Fever vs Liberty best odds

Fever vs Liberty picks and predictions

The debut was not smooth for Breanna Stewart. The two-time champ and league-altering addition by the New York Liberty finished with just 12 points in 34 minutes, going 3-10 from the field. Stewie only getting up 10 shots is almost as notable as her only making three of them. 

There were going to be some growing pains, but that was almost as bad as it could have gone. However, superstar players don’t stay down for long. There’s good reason to believe that Stewart will have a strong bounceback performance against the Indiana Fever.

For one thing, the Mystics were the league’s best defense last season and it looks like they might be that good again or better. Washington still has seven players on the roster from the 2019 championship season, so they have a level of continuity that most WNBA teams can’t come close to approaching. That’s the worst possible kind of opponent for a Liberty team that is talented but still finding itself. 

They also had one of the two or three people in the WNBA who can hang with Stewart one-on-one in Elena Delle Donne. Delle Donne is similar in size, build, and speed to Stewie, and with a bag of moves just as deep.

They know each other’s preferred spots on the court well and are able to anticipate and deny them easy looks. The Mystics also have some of the best guard defenders in the W, including new addition Brittney Sykes. That guard pressure sped Sabrina Ionescu up in a big way, turned her into a bit of a black hole on offense, and ensured that Stewart was never in a rhythm.

The Fever should not present such a stiff challenge. Indiana was dead last in defensive efficiency last season and is still very much a work in progress on that end. Though they added the No. 1 pick in Aliyah Boston — and she figures to be a defensive powerhouse sooner rather than later — she’s more of a traditional big which is a player archetype that rarely gives Stewart trouble.

There’s nothing like a get-right game against an inferior opponent, and I’m expecting Stewie and the Liberty to make the most of it on Sunday.

My best bet: Breanna Stewart Over 19.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)

Fever vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis

Sunday’s line opened with the Liberty getting 14.5 points and has seen a slight drop to 14 at most books. It may take the Liberty a while before they’re collectively firing on all cylinders.

Their opening game against Washington was exactly what super team skeptics would have predicted. Not only were they not more than the sum of their parts, they were far less. They were frequently in each other's way, and Sabrina was far too often forcing the action rather than letting the game come to her. 

Predictably, Jonquel Jones got lost in the shuffle behind Ionescu and Stewart dominating the ball, and the Liberty limped to just 64 points in 40 minutes. This team has far too much offensive talent for that trend to continue against a team as limited as the Fever, however, and perhaps makes the Over at 156.5 the right play.

The Fever looked shaken for most of the opening frame of their game against the Sun. They were quickly down double digits — as many as 19 points at one point — but then a funny thing happened.

Aliyah Boston seemed to begin to figure out Connecticut on both ends. She led a reinvigorated interior defense that nearly led them all the way back to win. She also started eating on the offensive glass and working over the Sun players inside. 

That will be tough sledding against the likes of Jones, who is one of the best rim protectors in the WNBA. That could see one of Indiana’s only reliable sources of offense denied on Sunday. 

Fever vs Liberty betting trend to know

The Over is 4-1 in the Fever's last five road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Fever vs. Liberty.

Fever vs Liberty game info

Fever vs Liberty key injuries

Fever: Bernadett Hatar C (Out).
Liberty: Marine Johannes G (Out), Nyara Sabally F (Doubtful).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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