Fever vs Mercury Predictions, Picks, & Odds for Tonight’s WNBA Game

Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever continue their West Coast road trip today as they face off against a deep and talented Phoenix Mercury squad.

Oddsmakers expect a high-scoring affair, but I’m looking to the point guard battle for value as I make my Fever vs. Mercury predictions and WNBA picks ahead of this tilt on Sunday, June 30.

Fever vs Mercury predictions

My best bet
Natasha Cloud Over 10.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)

My analysis

Sometimes the biggest names on the marquee don’t end up defining the matchup — but that’s not the case on Sunday. 

Whether the Indiana Fever or Phoenix Mercury come out ahead this afternoon is going to be defined by the battle at the point guard position between Caitlin Clark and Natasha Cloud. For my money, while Clark is a highly skilled player, it’s advantage Cloud today.

The Fever do their best to protect Clark on defense, but a team like Phoenix gives them no good options. Kahleah Copper is too much to handle for most veteran wings, getting trapped on a switch against Brittney Griner is obviously death, and chasing the likes of Diana Taurasi around endless screens is a good way to gas out well before the end of the first quarter.

Likely, they’ll see Clark’s best matchup as the conventional one, guarding her fellow point guard in Cloud. That’s why I favor these Natasha Cloud odds — because while she’s not a volume scoring guard, she knows a good thing when she sees it. 

Cloud is a traditional floor general, and because she’s a bit of a shaky outside shooter, her game is predicated on aggressively attacking the basket whenever she has a chance. Clark isn’t strong enough, or defensively disciplined enough, to handle Cloud one on one. But it will be too costly to consistently send help with all of the Mercury’s many shooters on the floor.

Opposing teams shoot a whopping 21.3 free throws per game against Indiana. Only the Washington Mystics gift their opponents more trips to the foul line. 

It’s because they’re often physically overwhelmed by the competition and often in the wrong spots on the floor. Cloud is the perfect blend of brains and brawn to press both advantages. She’s one of the toughest players in the W but also a pick and roll maestro who reads the floor as well as anyone.

Wearing out Clark on defense will also be a cornerstone of slowing her down on offense. As such I suspect Cloud is going to be more of a featured player on offense than usual. 

Caitlin Clark odds, prop for today

My best bet
Caitlin Clark Under 17.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

My analysis

It’s not just Cloud’s offense that Clark has to worry about, it’s the pressure she’ll put on the rookie phenom on the other side of the ball. Cloud has made the All-Defense team twice (and could easily have made it several times) and was fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting just two seasons ago as a 5-foot-10 guard. 

You don’t sniff those kinds of accolades at that size without being a complete bulldog on the defensive end, and she has made the best players in the W wilt under her relentless physicality. And it’s not just that she’s tough, it’s that she reads the game as a point guard. She’ll anticipate and blow up developing actions, jump passing lanes, and otherwise disrupt any kind of rhythm Clark might hope to establish. 

Clark is also prone to frustration fouls, and it’s easy to see foul trouble further depressing her productivity in this one.

Fever vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)

Natasha Cloud Over 10.5 points

Caitlin Clark Under 17.5 points

Mercury team total Over 91.5

+480 at DraftKings

The Fever defense has shown flashes of quality, but they’ve yet to put together a full game against an opponent as talented as Phoenix. They’re still prone to miscues defending pick and roll and flat-out not picking up their matchups or stopping the ball in transition. 

They’re still dead last in defensive rating at a startling 109.5, and a lack of confidence in their dedication on that end has seen today’s total climb nearly six points since opening.

The Mercury have an outrageous amount of shooting, which should magnify the weaknesses of this already shaky Fever defense.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Fever vs Mercury odds

Fever vs Mercury live odds

Get the latest Fever vs Mercury WNBA odds for tonight.

Fever vs Mercury opening odds

• Spread: Indiana +7 | Phoenix -7
• Moneyline: Indiana +253 | Phoenix -300
• Over/Under: Over 173.5 | Under 173.5

Fever vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Fever opened as six-point underdogs against the Mercury, but action on the home team has seen that rise as high as -8.5 as of Sunday morning.
• The Mercury have been a strong home squad against the spread. While they’re 10-6 ATS overall, they’re a sterling 6-2 ATS at home.
• The Over on the total has been gaining steam since Saturday. After opening at just 169.5, it’s now priced between 174.5 and 175 at most sportsbooks.

Fever vs Mercury trend

The Over is 14-5 in Fever games this season. Find more WNBA betting trends for Fever vs. Mercury.

Fever vs Mercury game info

Fever vs Mercury latest injuries

Fever: None.
Mercury: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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