The WNBA playoffs are finally here, and we have the matchup most were waiting for when the Connecticut Sun welcomes the Indiana Fever to the Mohegan Sun Arena.
Fever guard Caitlin Clark will grab most of the headlines, but my Fever vs. Sun predictions believe the Sun have a veteran forward who could steal the show this afternoon before a nationally televised audience.
Read on for why my WNBA picks expect DeWanna Bonner to go off on Sunday, September 22, 2024.
Fever vs Sun predictions
My best bet
DeWanna Bonner Over 14.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)
My analysis
After 15 years, Connecticut Sun guard DeWanna Bonner still gets buckets in the WNBA.
Bonner isn’t scoring like she used to, but she’s averaging almost a point more than her career average (14.9) on nearly two more minutes per night (31.8).
Bonner has been around the WNBA for a long time and is the Sun’s leading scorer and probably their best perimeter defender. She’s averaged 15 points and six caroms per night and can beat defenders to the cup, in the mid-range, or from the three-point arc.
The Auburn grad has also been a thorn in the Indiana Fever’s side on both ends of the floor, but her scoring spikes to 18 points when she plays the Fever. Her scoring prop of 15+ is something we need to attack today.
The Fever plays the second-worst defense in the WNBA. Across their last 10 games, they’ve allowed 91 points per game on 44% shooting from the floor and 38% from downtown.
Bonner is tough for the Fever to defend because she scores from everywhere, especially against Indiana. Bonner drains 45% of her 14.5 field goal attempts and 29% of her five triple attempts against the Fever while getting to the line five times per night.
Indiana hasn’t slowed Bonner down this season, and they won’t today. Bonner thrives in slow-tempo environments, and no one plays slower than her Sun. The Sun will control the pace, and she’s scored 15+ points in three of her four games against the Fever. She’s cleared her scoring prop in five of her last seven playoff games and should do so again today.
Caitlin Clark pick: A tough opening act
My best bet
Under 20.5 points (-135 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Caitlin Clark has been lighting up the league since the WNBA returned from the Paris break, but reality is coming today.
Clark thrives in a fast-paced game environment. She scored 35 points in a track meet against Dallas, but she’ll score 18 and 16 when fast-paced teams like the Las Vegas Aces turn games into snail paces.
The Sun doesn’t have to change its offense to thwart Clark because it boasts the slowest pace in the league. They’ve held Clark to fewer than 20 points in each of their four games on 39% shooting from the field and 34% from downtown.
I expect the same today. The Suns' backcourt features big, physical guards who can trap as well as anyone. They’ve forced Clark into six turnovers per game, and their physicality turns her into a brick machine.
No matter how hard she tries, the Sun won’t give Clark the pace she needs to clear 21+ points today. Clark has been on fire since the Paris break, but she’s about to get a dose of playoff reality and will have a hard time scoring 21+ against the Sun today.
Fever vs Sun same-game parlay (SGP)
DeWanna Bonner 15+ points
Caitlin Clark Under 20.5 points
DiJonai Carrington Over 13.5 points
Guards seem to score big against the Fever.
That’s because opposing backcourts are draining 44% shooting from the field and 38% from downtown across the Fever’s last 10. Indiana also sends guards to the line 10 times per tilt; as a result, opposing backcourts average 51 points per night.
Across her four previous games with Indiana, DiJonai Carrington has averaged 17.8 points per night. She’s gotten wide-open looks from everywhere while draining 48% from the floor and 25% from beyond the arc. Carrington successfully posts up Fever guards in the paint and turns Clark’s turnovers into points.
Carrington has scored 14+ in each of their last four with the Fever and should do so again today.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Fever vs Sun odds
Fever vs Sun live odds
Get the latest Fever vs Sun WNBA odds for tonight.
Fever vs Sun opening odds
- Spread: Indiana +4.5 | Connecticut -4.5
- Moneyline: Indiana +140 | Connecticut -165
- Over/Under: Over 162.5 | Under 162.5
Fever vs Sun series odds
- Fever: +160
- Sun: -190
Fever vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis
- Money has come in on the Sun, causing the spread to spike as high as -5.5 (-115) from the -4.5 (-110) openers.
- Over/Under numbers haven’t budged much from the 163.5 (-110) opener. Their season series Over/Under record is 2-2-0.
Fever vs Sun trend
The Fever are 5-0-0 ATS across their past five away games, while the Sun are 2-3-0 ATS across their last five home bouts. Find more WNBA betting trends for Fever vs. Sun.
Fever vs Sun game info
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Montville, CT |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-22-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Fever vs Sun latest injuries
Fever: No injuries to report.
Sun: Tiffany Mitchelle (out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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