The best defense in the WNBA faces the most-discussed shooter in the league’s history tonight. That defense has kickstarted the Connecticut Sun to a league-best 9-1 record, while Caitlin Clark has not been enough to keep the Indiana Fever from a wretched 3-9 start.
My Fever vs. Sun predictions side with that Connecticut defense.
Doubting Clark may not be popular, but doing so tonight should be considered more as belief in Connecticut in our free WNBA picks before tip on Monday, June 10, at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Caitlin Clark odds, prop for tonight
My best bet
Caitlin Clark Under 2.5 threes (+125 at BetRivers)
My analysis
Caitlin Clark’s good games are undeniably great. She went 7-for-13 from deep to top Washington on Friday, scoring 30 points and knocking down the game-sealing free throws.
But her average game right now is still a relative struggle. Take out her two best games from distance (Friday and going 4-for-10 on May 18), and Clark is shooting just 28.4% from beyond the arc, making only 2.3 per game.
The WNBA did not do Clark or the Indiana Fever any favors early in the season. Not only have they played 12 games, compared to two teams logging merely nine thus far and three others at just 10, but Indiana has also faced the two best teams in the league — the Sun and the Liberty — five total times already, not to mention one game against the two-time defending champions Las Vegas Aces.
Clark has played well, relatively speaking, against the Connecticut Sun in those two games, going 7-for-18 from deep, but that has been an exception, both for Clark compared to the rest of her season and for opponents against the Sun.
Connecticut’s opponents have shot 28.2% from deep this year, the second-lowest rate in the WNBA behind only the Lynx. They take 21.3 threes per game, the third-lowest mark in the league, and only a 10th behind Minnesota.
After Clark twice dialed up from deep against the Sun, Connecticut should emphasize shutting that down tonight. The Sun have succeeded in that regard against everyone else this season, and with more and more Clark film available, they should succeed again tonight.
Fever vs Sun predictions
My best bet
Fever team total Under 74.5 (-114 at BetRivers)
My analysis
Connecticut's defense is more stifling than its defensive rating suggests. When the Sun are at their best, points simply do not exist for opponents. Four of Connecticut's last five opponents fell short of their team totals, by an average of 19.1 points.
Three of those did not even crack 60 points.
What did those teams have in common with Indiana? Two of them have the worst offenses in the WNBA, just below the Fever.
Fever vs Sun same-game parlay (SGP)
Caitlin Clark Under 2.5 threes
Fever TT Under 74.6
Under 159.5
Not only have four of Connecticut’s last five opponents fallen short of their team totals, but four of the last five Sun games have also fallen short of their pregame totals. In both instances, the exception was the Liberty.
With all due respect to Clark, New York has the best offensive rating in the WNBA, while Indiana has the third-worst. There is little reason to expect the Fever to abuse Connecticut’s defense as the Liberty did.
In those four games of note, exactly two players hit more than two 3-pointers against the Sun, Karlie Samuelson and Arike Ogunbowale. If Clark does not follow suit, then points should be at a premium tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Fever vs Sun odds
Fever vs Sun live odds
Get the latest Fever vs Sun WNBA odds for tonight.
Fever vs Sun opening odds
- Spread: Indiana +12.5 (-110) | Connecticut -12.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Indiana +600 | Connecticut -900
- Over/Under: Over 161.5 (-110) | Under 161.5 (-110)
Fever vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis
- Some books opened this spread on Sunday night with Indiana a healthy 12.5-point underdog. By sunrise, that had fallen to +10.5.
- The total opened at 161.5 and dropped before Sunday night ended, reaching 159 for a moment before toggling between 160 and 159 throughout the night, settling at 159.
- Four of Connecticut’s last five games would have fallen short of this total, as well.
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Fever vs Sun trend
The Fever are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 7.4 points, even including the single ATS win. Find more WNBA betting trends for Fever vs. Sun.
Fever vs Sun game info
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT |
| Date: | Monday, 6-10-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
Fever vs Sun latest injuries
Fever: Damiris Dantas F (Questionable), Temi Fagbenle C (Out).
Sun: Moriah Jefferson G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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