Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Don't Expect Another Close One

Oh, what a difference a year makes. Just last season, this would have been a matchup between the WNBA’s best team and its absolute worst, and while the Las Vegas Aces continue to pace the rest of the W in wins, the Indiana Fever have made huge strides toward respectability. 

Aliyah Boston already looks like a Top-10 player and the Fever look like they’re ready to be relevant in the playoffs sooner rather than later. Still, it will take them hitting a whole new gear if they want to take down the defending champs tonight.

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Fever vs. Aces believe that betting markets are giving just a bit too much respect to this upstart Indiana squad.

Fever vs Aces best odds

Fever vs Aces picks and predictions

It’s always fun to watch the current face of the league square off against the person coming up from behind them to try and snatch the crown. While A’ja Wilson of the Las Vegas Aces is the undisputed No.1 at this very moment, her fellow former South Carolina Gamecock Aliyah Boston might have something to say about that in short order.

The Indiana Fever hosted the Aces back on June 4, giving a spirited effort only to ultimately lose by just four points. Given how dominant the Aces have been this season (and they have been historically dominant), it raises questions of just how good the Fever are vs. how poorly the Aces played. One part of that answer has little to do with Indiana at least, which is that the Aces had an unusually poor offensive outing, finishing the game shooting just 19% from three. And on the other side of the ledger, the Fever had the shooting game of their lives, going 11-for-19 from downtown.

The Fever have one of the league’s worst defenses, and it’s quite unlikely they manage to contain the Aces to that degree twice in a single season. Las Vegas just has so many dynamic guards in Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum, and Chelsea Gray that someone is going to have an easy matchup. Young is playing like an MVP candidate and while Plum’s shot has not been falling consistently to start the season, she’s still been incredibly effective.  She’s leaned more heavily on her driving game and she’s killing teams by attacking the paint.

Plum is a practiced pro of using her strides to get good looks at the hoop, either shortening or elongating them, and shifting her gait so that her opponent is just out of reach to make a play on the ball. That kind of subtle action is going to be tough to deal with for a Fever team relatively short of experience.

And in the matchup on the block, Wilson had her way against Boston. While Boston was able to score a few times using her elite pivot game, Wilson consistently outplayed her inside. A’ja used her superior touch to shoot over the top while Boston was still trying to find the range. Boston could never nail the timing on Wilson's patented turnaround fadeaway from the post, and she’d either foul or give her too much room and a clean look. Boston’s inability to nail the timing also had her in foul trouble, which has been an ongoing issue for her this season.

The Fever have improved dramatically over last season, but I don’t think the close game they played against the Aces at the beginning of June was representative of these teams' relative strengths. I’m also expecting A’ja and the Aces to put a stamp on this game to prove that the previous contest was indeed a fluke. I’m banking on the Aces to blow the upstart Fever out of the water on Saturday.

My best bet: Aces -15.5 (-108 at Pinnacle)

Fever vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis

The Aces opened between 14.5- and 15.5-point favorites for Saturday’s game, which — in case you haven’t been following their season overly closely — is actually a huge nod of respect to the Fever. The Aces are leading the league in net rating at 20.2. In other words, they’re outscoring opponents by 20.2 points per 100 possessions, which is just slightly more than the 99.1 they have per game. So, for the Fever to earn 5-6 points against that line, when the Aces should also be earning about another two points due to homecourt advantage, is quite a vote of confidence by oddsmakers.

All the more so when you realize that for all their improvements this season, the Fever still own a slightly negative net rating themselves (-.5). This line is largely about the Fever’s super competitive performance against the Aces on June 4, a single result I do not think is worth anchoring our expectations. The Aces have been spread killers this season, particularly at home, where they’re 5-1 against the spread in their last six games in Vegas.

The total opened at 166.5 and has steadily climbed to 169.5 at time of writing. Action should continue to pour in on the Over, but even though I expect an Aces blowout, I’d be wary of laying anything at this number. The Fever are the classic archetype of a young and talented but inexperienced team, in that their offense is far ahead of their defense. But the Aces defense is elite, and if they decide to turn up the pressure from the opening tip to prove a point, they could very well push this toward the Under. The Aces have been throttling teams at home this season, which has contributed to the Under going 8-1 in their last nine home games despite the fact that they have an unbelievable offense. The Fever are also dead last in terms of pace.

Fever vs Aces betting trend to know

The Aces are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Fever vs. Aces.

Fever vs Aces game info

Fever vs Aces key injuries

Fever: Victoria Vivians G (Questionable), Grace Berger G (Questionable), Bernadett Hatar C (Out).
Aces: Riquna Williams G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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