Indiana Fever vs New York Liberty Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Scorching-Hot Sabrina Leads NY at Home

The New York Liberty have a lot of work to do in the second half of the season if they’re going to live up to their lofty preseason hype.

New York stumbled out of the gate with a loss in its first game back from the All-Star break but corrected course with a win over short-handed Washington on Friday. Next up is a feisty Indiana Fever team that took the Liberty to overtime on July 12.

The WNBA odds have New York painted as double-digit chalk at home — a similar spot as that last run-in with Indiana, in which it delivered a terrible bad beat for NYC bettors.

I break down Sunday afternoon’s spread and Over/Under total and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Fever at Liberty on July 23.

Fever vs Liberty best odds

Fever vs Liberty picks and predictions

The New York Liberty won’t take the Indiana Fever lightly when these Eastern Conference rivals clash in Brooklyn for a Sunday matinee.

Indiana pushed New York to the brink in the last matchup but fell apart in the overtime period after battling back from 20 points down in the fourth quarter of that 95-87 loss.

The Liberty held a 74-56 advantage with a little less than eight minutes left in regulation but went on an extended scoring slump that saw them tally just six more points from the free throw line before opening overtime with a 3-pointer.

That extended drought is an anomaly, especially when you consider the efficiency of the New York offense (second in effective FG%) and the low level of defense shown by Indiana this season. That July 12 meeting should never have gotten that close and definitely wouldn’t have gone to overtime if not for that weird eight-minute blip. I’m not putting any extra weight into that result when betting today’s spread.

The Liberty have a ton of firepower that seems to be clicking better than ever (89.8 ppg in July), especially standout guard Sabrina Ionescu. She struggled to find her way in this revamped roster earlier in the year but dropped 34 points on the Fever in that last matchup out and is averaging 23 points over her past four games.

Jumpstarting this New York attack is a quicker pace and plenty of buckets in transition. The Liberty have turned up the tempo in July, with a pace rating of 99.72, and have put defenses on their heels with their fastbreak attack. Indiana, as it would be, allows the third-most fastbreak buckets in the land.

With starting forward NaLyssa Smith out of action (15.6 ppg), the Fever are very much outgunned against the star-studded New York lineup. Indiana’s offensive rating drops from 105.5 with Smith on the court to 102.7 without her.

My WNBA power ratings produced a spread just north of Liberty -14 and that was before factoring in Smith’s absence. With bookmakers bouncing between New York -11.5 and -12.5 as of Sunday morning, I’m laying the points with the home favorite.

My best bet: Liberty -11.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Fever vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis

The Liberty opened as big as 12.5-point home faves for this 3 p.m. ET tipoff and the early movement was away from the host side, dropping the spread to as low as New York -11.5. Some online markets and sharper sportsbooks have since jumped back to -12.5 with buyback on the Liberty.

My WNBA power ratings produced a spread of New York -14.18 for today’s game and when you add in that the Fever will still be without star forward NaLyssa Smith (out at least two weeks with a stress fracture in her foot), this spread should really be much higher. The Fever will get starting guard Lexie Hull back from a broken nose, however.

The July 12 matchup between these teams in Indiana opened with a spread as low as Liberty -8.5 but climbed to a closing number of -10.5 with action on New York.

Indiana has been a strange team to rank this season. Expected to sit at the bottom of the league, the Fever have shown fight — especially against the WNBA’s elite clubs. They’ve taken the fight to the Liberty as well as contenders like Las Vegas and Washington (when healthy). That’s helped build an 11-8-1 ATS mark against a record of just 6-15 SU.

Both teams’ last victory came against an injury-depleted Washington side playing without three of its five starters, including former MVP Elena Delle Donne. That win snapped an eight-game losing streak for Indiana and was its third straight game covering the spread. New York is on a five-game ATS slump going back to July 5.

New York has looked stellar offensively, as all those new pieces come together. Breanna Stewart continued to anchor the scoring attack, but Jonquel Jones, Sabrina Ionescu, and Courtney Vandersloot are all finding their roles within this new-look lineup.

But while N.Y. is 15-5 SU, the high expectations have also produced high point spreads and the Liberty are just 8-12 ATS heading into Sunday. Defense has been the biggest culprit spoiling those ATS winners. The Liberty have a defensive rating of 100.4 so far in July, allowing foes to average almost 85 points.

New York blew a 20-point lead on the road and watched Indiana score 80 points in regulation on July 12 despite the Fever firing at just 39% from the floor, thanks in large part to 22 turnovers getting flipped into 15 easy points. They were tied 80-80 in regulation, which would have played Under the closing 169.5-point total, but the added frame helped push the final score past the total.

On the season, Indiana is 12-9 Over/Under with a poor defense helping produce higher scores. The Fever are dead last in the WNBA in defensive rating (106.0) and allowing 85.5 points per contest. Offensively, they sit a respectable No. 5 in the league with an efficient approach (fifth in effective FG rate) and slower tempo (pace rating of 95.52).

As for the Liberty, they bring a 13-7 O/U count into Sunday’s home stand. New York’s high-powered offense and inconsistent efforts on defense are a perfect blend for Over backers. The Liberty have gone Over in three straight outings, but one of those results was the overtime affair with Indiana.

Fever vs Liberty betting trend to know

The Over is 8-2 in the Liberty’s last 10 overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Fever vs. Liberty.

Fever vs Liberty game info

Fever vs Liberty key injuries

Fever: NaLyssa Smith F (Out), Lexie Hull G (Probable).
Liberty: Stefanie Dolson C (Out), Han Xu C (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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