Indiana Fever vs Seattle Storm Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Smith Dominates Down Low

The Indiana Fever and Seattle Storm may sit near the bottom of the standings but when it comes to the WNBA odds, these clubs hold a soft spot with bettors.

Indiana and Seattle have a collective 7-15 SU record but have pumped out a combined 12-7-3 ATS count so far this season.

Unfortunately, Thursday’s non-conference clash in Seattle forces us to choose between two of the sneakier spread winners to start the 2023 campaign. The Fever are slight favorites in the Emerald City and the total is the tallest on today’s board, setting up what could be a great game between two of the league’s “bad” teams.

I take a look at the movement around the spread and Over/Under as well as give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Fever at Storm on June 22.

Fever vs Storm best odds

Fever vs Storm picks and predictions

A big part of the Indiana Fever’s improvement this season has been a fortified frontcourt with budding standouts like Aliyah Boston and NaLyssa Smith pounding teams in the paint.

Indiana enters Thursday as the third-best interior scoring team in the WNBA (38 PITP per game) and faces a Seattle Storm defense getting bullied inside.

Seattle gives up a league-high 40.2 points in the painted area per game, and that has me looking at Smith and her scoring prop. While Boston leads the Fever in scoring inside, she is nursing a tender calf that could impact her play or limit her minutes.

Smith is almost as dominant in the key, averaging 14.5 points per game — 8.5 of those coming in the paint. She's also very active on the offensive glass, hauling in more than two offensive rebounds an outing and leading the Fever in second-chance points.

Her scoring projections range from 15.1 to as high as 16.2 points for tonight’s road tilt. Smith’s point prop market sits between 13.5 (Over -113) and 14.5 (Over +105), presenting solid value to go Over that shorter total which some simulation models price out at 13.5 Over -130.

Smith scored 12 points in just 24 minutes last time out, making 3-of-10 field goal attempts but picked up points at the foul line, hitting 6-of-8 free throws. The game prior, the second-year forward scored 15 points in 32 minutes, also cashing in 5 of 5 on freebies.

She posted a career-high 29 points at Phoenix earlier in the month, taking advantage of a Mercury defense — much like Seattle — that stinks at protecting the paint. A dozen of those tallies came inside the key. 

Given the similar defensive matchup, positive player projections, and the varying totals, we'll snatch up the Over on 13.5 points from NaLyssa tonight.

My best bet: NaLyssa Smith Over 13.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Fever vs Storm spread and Over/Under analysis

Indiana opened as 1.5-point favorites on the road with some uncertainty around star rookie Aliyah Boston, who is nursing a calf injury. She was originally a game-time decision but has been upgraded to probable for Thursday.

Early action has sided with Indiana, pushing this spread to as high as Fever -2.5 as of Tuesday morning but the market consensus as of 11 a.m. ET is Fever -2.

My WNBA ratings were kinder to the home side, producing a spread closer to pick’em for this non-conference clash.

The Storm have run a gauntlet against quality foes the past three games, facing Las Vegas and Dallas on the road (losing by 30 to the Aces and stunning the Wings 109-103 in a matinee matchup on June 17) before a hard-fought loss to Connecticut at home, in which they covered as 8-point underdogs.

Seattle entered the season projected to finish last in the West and while its win/loss record plays along, the Storm have exceeded the oddsmakers’ expectations to the tune of a 7-3-1 ATS count.

The Fever have followed a similar perception in the WNBA betting market out East, entering 2023 with the lowest win total in the land. They’ve shocked their way to a 5-4-2 ATS record but the market is getting wise to this turnaround and the Fever are just 1-2-1 ATS in their last four games, including a 100-94 home loss to Atlanta on the weekend.

Thursday’s total opened at 162.5 points and has risen to 164.5 as of this afternoon.

Indiana may play the slowest pace in the WNBA (94.98) but defense remains an issue for the team, boasting the second-worst defensive rating in the league and a 7-4 Over/Under mark on the season. The Fever have countered that with an improved offense that has posted outputs of 87, 92, and 94 points in the past three games.

The Storm play a more up-tempo style (fourth in pace rating) but also fail to contain opponents. Seattle is just above the Fever in terms of defensive quality, which has translated into a 6-5 O/U count, helped along by a scoring attack that can erupt for big points. 

Fever vs Storm betting trend to know

The Over is 7-3 in Fever’s last 10 games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Fever vs. Storm.

Fever vs Storm game info

Fever vs Storm key injuries

Fever: Aliyah Boston C (Probable), Grace Berger G (Doubtful), Victoria Vivians G (Doubtful).
Storm: Arella Guirantes G (Probable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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