Las Vegas Aces vs Atlanta Dream Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Offensive Woes Take Center Stage

Despite an MVP-worthy performance by A’ja Wilson on Saturday, the Las Vegas Aces dropped their first regular season home game of the year to the Los Angeles Sparks. They’ll be looking to get back on track tonight as they head to Georgia to take on the struggling Atlanta Dream.

The Dream will have to dig deep to beat the WNBA odds and upset the reigning champs, and might have to do so without their star, Rhyne Howard. Our WNBA picks and predictions for Aces vs. Dream believe that the recent offensive drop-off by both teams strongly favors the Under in today’s game.

Aces vs Dream best odds

Aces vs Dream picks and predictions

We’re approaching the twilight of the WNBA regular season, and as such we’re in a period where teams are known quantities, playbooks are scouted, and there are fewer and fewer surprises. Just as in any single playoff series trends toward lower-scoring games the longer they go on, the long grind of a W season — paired with numerous matchups against the same team within a calendar month  — has a similar impact.

The Las Vegas Aces have largely dominated the 2023 season because they’ve been consistently elite on both sides of the ball. But by their lofty standards, there has been slippage in recent weeks. Not only did they lose to the New York Liberty twice in a short span of time, but they are also coming off their first home loss to a relatively pedestrian Los Angeles Sparks team.

The slippage for Las Vegas has mostly come on the offensive end. The loss of Candace Parker has fundamentally shifted its lineups to more defense and less passing, plus shooting units now heavily feature Kiah Stokes. While Stokes is an All-World level defender, she's still a negative on the offensive end.

Pre-All-Star break, the Aces had a 114.7 offensive rating — one of the best in league history. Since then, they’re down to 110.9, a far cry from where they once were.

Also under-discussed is the loss of Riquna Williams (who is highly unlikely to play for Las Vegas again as she faces felony charges for domestic violence). Williams allowed the Aces to play a small-ball look that leaned offense rather than defense — something their current group cannot do. That turn toward defense has contributed to the Under cashing in four straight Aces games.

The Atlanta Dream have also slipped offensively since the All-Star Break, with their offensive rating slipping to a league-worst 94 in that time. The wheels have come off for Atlanta on that side of the ball, and now the Dream may be missing guard Rhyne Howard for tonight's contest as well. 

The two games that the Aces played against the Dream in August totaled 151 and 165 respectively, both going far under their projected totals. While today's projection at 168.5 is lower than for either of those games, it’s still not low enough given Las Vegas’ offensive struggles in recent games and the Dream’s myriad of offensive issues.

My best bet: Under 168.5 (-120 at BetVictor)

Aces vs Dream spread and Over/Under analysis

The line for Tuesday’s tilt has fluctuated wildly, from as little as -9.5 in favor of Las Vegas to where it currently sits at most sportsbooks at -15.5. That kind of movement suggests there is less confidence in a Howard return for today’s game, but she remains officially questionable with a knee injury.

The Aces will be highly motivated to get this win and right the ship after their shocking home loss to the Sparks on Saturday. Las Vegas was perpetually caught playing catchup, and its inability to string together productive offensive possessions limited its ability to come back and win. 

And what we’ve seen time and time again with Las Vegas is that they do not let one loss, straight up nor against the spread, spiral into a trend. The Aces are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss, as well as 4-1 ATS following a straight up loss.

By comparison, the Dream struggle with any kind of prosperity. They’re 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. After a solid start to the season, they’ve slipped since the All-Star break, going just 5-8 in that time with a -5.3 net rating. They’re 2-7 ATS in their last nine and have no ATS wins against winning teams in that stretch.

The total for today’s game has seen significant movement, from a low of 166.5 to as high as 169.5. In addition to the incredible overall stretch of Unders that the Dream have played in, there are further supporting trends. Unlike most teams with prolific 3-point shooters, Atlanta’s offense has not seen a noticeable uptick in playing at home in the last month and a half. The Under is 7-0 in its last seven games at Gateway Center Arena.

One of the few reliable offensive weapons for the Dream all season long has been their ability to get to the charity stripe. Atlanta has the highest free throw attempt rate of any W team this season, but that’s going to be tested on Tuesday as the Aces gift their opponents the fewest free throws in turn. 

Aces vs Dream betting trend to know

The Under is 15-1 in Atlanta's last 16 overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Dream.

Aces vs Dream game info

Aces vs Dream key injuries

Aces: Candace Parker F (Out), Riquna Williams G (Out).
Dream: Rhyne Howard G (Questionable), Allisha Gray G (Doubtful), Nia Coffey F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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