Las Vegas Aces vs Dallas Wings Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Wilson Works Against Dallas

Sunday’s game between the Las Vegas Aces and the New York Liberty produced the single most shocking result of the 2023 WNBA season. Not only did the Liberty beat the WNBA odds and avenge their early season loss against the defending champs, they stomped them to the tune of a 38-point blowout to hand Las Vegas just its third loss of the season. 

After what was a Murphy's Law “what could go wrong, did go wrong” outcome for the Aces, Becky Hammon will be looking for an immediate bounce-back statement win against the Dallas Wings. Dallas won’t go quietly however, setting up what could be another classic game between the two teams this year.

My WNBA picks and predictions for the Aces vs. Wings are banking on A’ja Wilson returning to form after a disappointing performance on Sunday.

Aces vs Wings best odds

Aces vs Wings picks and predictions

Nobody on the Las Vegas Aces played particularly well Sunday, but it begins at the top with team leader and reigning Finals MVP A’ja Wilson, who turned in one of the worst games of her pro career.

A’ja finished with just nine points on 2-for-14 shooting and suffered a nasty hit from Jonquel Jones that saw her briefly leave the game to get examined for possible concussion symptoms. While the elbow she suffered at the hands of Jones surely stung, Wilson was cleared from any concussion concerns by an Aces' doctor before ultimately returning to the game.

Wilson took to Twitter following the game to take accountability for her poor performance as well as clap back at fans who were criticizing her and speculating that she played concussed. A’ja was emphatic that she did not, and her name has not appeared anywhere on the Aces injury report.

So that means A’ja is not only fully healthy for this matchup but frankly, she’s probably a little pissed off. Nothing quiets the news about a loss as bad as the one Vegas suffered at New York’s hands than coming out and dominating in the following game.

The matchup is also highly conducive to her doing so. The Dallas Wings are a team that thrives on their size advantages at many positions — but that is not such a boon against A’ja and Vegas. While the Aces would of course love to have Candace Parker back and healthy as soon as possible, by being forced to go smaller they’re likely to have a bigger edge against the Wings.

If Parker was playing, she is a natural matchup for Teaira McCowan — who at 6-foot-7 and nearly 250 pounds is an intimidating rim protector — but is only average in terms of footspeed for her size. Against Parker, who at this age has lost a little bit off her first step, that’s not a huge issue.

Against Wilson however, it is. A’ja can punish McCowan by rim running in transition, as she did many times in their previous matchup. While Wilson is not a volume 3-point shooter, she can still drag McCowan away from the rim with her shooting out to 18 feet. Once there, with the rest of the floor spread to defend against a barrage of Aces 3-point shooting, she can pretty much blow by her at will.

The will for A’ja is certain to be there, and the way is clear enough through the paint on the way to cash this prop.

My best bet: A'ja Wilson Over 21.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Aces vs Wings spread and Over/Under analysis

The odds for Tuesday’s game opened at Dallas +8.5, and while there has been some movement to as high as +9.5, other books are still offering the original number if one is inclined to bet on the home team today. And there’s certainly reason to lean in that direction. 

The Wings have kind of had the Aces number in recent history (at least in terms of covering the spread), which has seen Las Vegas go just 1-6 ATS the last seven times these two teams have played. Dallas is also coming off an ATS loss of its own and is 4-1 ATS in its last five in that situation. But today that Dallas bet feels riskier than usual.

The Aces are going to have a fire lit under them that doesn’t just stop with A’ja. It’s hard to bet against a defending champion that’s beating teams by nearly 18 points per game when they’re also going to be super motivated to move on from their worst defeat of the season.

Despite the blowout loss the Aces are still 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, and there’s no fundamental reason to believe their poor play will carry over to today (and plenty of reasons to believe it will not).

It was stunning to watch the WNBA’s No. 1 overall offense sputter to 61 points on Sunday, but one off day should not anchor our thinking too much here. The Aces' 113.5 offensive rating is still more than five points better than any other team, and their combination of rim pressure and spacing is hard to contain. 

The Wings and Aces are both run-and-gun teams, ranking second and third in pace respectively, which goes a long way to explaining this line opening at 175.5. The trends largely still point toward another high-scoring game, with the Over cashing in six of the Aces' last eight overall, and seven of the Wings' last nine. Money coming in on the Over has seen the total climb as high as 177.5, but the original number is still on offer at multiple sportsbooks.

As we saw on Sunday when the level of competition increases between elite teams, often that translates into better rotations, extra efforts on the glass, and more ball pressure. All of that can see scoring decline sharply. That’s in part why despite Vegas' trend of Overs, the Under has cashed in eight of its last ten against teams with a winning record.

Aces vs Wings betting trend to know

The Under is 8-2 in Aces' last 10 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Wings.

Aces vs Wings game info

Aces vs Wings key injuries

Aces: Candace Parker F (Out), Riquna Williams G (Out).
Wings: Diamond DeShields G (Out), Lou Lopez Senechal G (Out), Awak Kuier F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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